------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON APRIL 2016 HAS MADE Wapr = 22.8, 38.0 (new) THAT GIVES FOR 80 MONTHS (2015, SEPTEMBER) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*Ïctober = 38.6; 64.4 - new system; W*september = 39.6; 66.0 - new system; - On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of cal- culation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. Almost all the work using smooth W* have to lead to a new system, if it remains. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM-IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - VI 2020; THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2016, APRIL ACCORDING DATA OF 79 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 12m 6.. 20 11.. 42 16.. 42 21.. 26 26.. 57 2.. 12m 7.. 18 12.. 37 17.. 36 22.. 22 27.. 77 3.. 12m 8.. 27 13.. 48 18.. 31 23.. 13 28.. 90M 4.. 40 9.. 25 14.. 45 19.. 28 24.. 38 29.. 81 5.. 34 10.. 34 15.. 33 20.. 25 25.. 45 30.. 89 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON 2016, APRIL F10.7apr. = 91.6 F*10.7 oct.= THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2016, APRIL Ap apr. = 11.0 Ap* oct.= ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 25.04 - 01.05.2016, Forecast on 2 - 09.05.2016, Carrington Rotation 2176(12,79.04.2016) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT A AVERAGE LEVEL. THE ESTI- MATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUM- BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old)FOR THE PERIOD IS W = 44+8/-21 (WÎ=70+13/-34). 3-6 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS CONSTANTLY OBSERVED ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK. NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE AVERAGE LEVELS OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVI- TY. THE ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATI- VE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 020+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL 28, 29.04 AND 1.05 AND THE VERY LOW - IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WERE THREE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONO- GRAPHS >17 CMEs, ONE - TYPE II (angular width >90- <180 deg.) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te Localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 26.04 >0040 >1325 S13W44L227 5 27.04 >0059 >1258 S07W65L237 9 27.04 0300 0600 S25E35L137 5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH - S10L173 S20L160 S25L163 S12L178 n/d 30.04 1 SDO, SOHO.. CH - N27L160 N12L148 N10L148 N15L178 n/d 30.04 1 SDO, SOHO.. CH + N10L099 S22L094 S25L097 N20L101 n/d 06.05 1 SDO, SOHO.. Sch - CH Square in Mm*2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 30.04/04 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 04.05. APRIL 25 26 27 28 29 30 01 MAY Wus 038 065 086 084 082 082 076 F10.7 082 085 093 095 092 094 092 èbcg á9.8 B1.4 B2.1 ÷2.2 ÷2.0 ÷2.1 ÷1.7 GOES Sp 140 200 280 300 300 300 380 msh N 2 1 1 1 IMF - - - - - -/+ + áóå Å>2 5.9å+6 6.9å+6 8.6å+6 1.4å+7 1.6E+7 7.0E+6 1.3å+6 GOES Ie>2 146 172 349 347 353 292 pfu GOES Ap 5 6 7 5 3 7 16 nT BOULDER Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 6 10 13 5 7 8 13 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED 1.05. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUIET PRACTICALLY UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD, BUT AT THE END OF THE DAYS 1.05 ACCORDING TO THE CENTER BOULDER DATA THE MAGNETIC STORM, INTENSITY OF G2 HAS DE- VELOPED. DETAILS IN THE FOLLOWING RELEASE OF THE REVIEW. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION IS EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED. THE STRANGE MAGNETIC STORM 1-2.05 ISN'T REGISTERED ACCORDING TO IZMI- RAN DATA. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru