------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON APRIL 2016 HAS MADE Wapr = 22.8, 38.0 (new) THAT GIVES FOR 80 MONTHS (2015, SEPTEMBER) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*Ïctober = 38.6; 64.4 - new system; W*september = 39.6; 66.0 - new system; - On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of cal- culation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. Almost all the work using smooth W* have to lead to a new system, if it remains. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM-IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - VI 2020; THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2016, APRIL ACCORDING DATA OF 79 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 12m 6.. 20 11.. 42 16.. 42 21.. 26 26.. 57 2.. 12m 7.. 18 12.. 37 17.. 36 22.. 22 27.. 77 3.. 12m 8.. 27 13.. 48 18.. 31 23.. 13 28.. 90M 4.. 40 9.. 25 14.. 45 19.. 28 24.. 38 29.. 81 5.. 34 10.. 34 15.. 33 20.. 25 25.. 45 30.. 89 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON 2016, APRIL F10.7apr. = 91.6 F*10.7 oct.= 110.8 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2016, APRIL Ap apr. = 9.03 Ap* oct.= 12.8 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 02 - 08.05.2016, Forecast on 09 - 16.05.2016, Carrington Rotation 2176(12,79.04.2016) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT A AVERAGE LEVEL. THE ESTI- MATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUM- BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old)FOR THE PERIOD IS W= 35+10/-10 (WÎ=56+12/-6). 5 - 3 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS CONSTANTLY OBSERVED ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK. NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE AVERAGE LEVELS OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVI- TY. THE ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATI- VE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 020+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL 02, 04 AND 7.05 AND THE VERY LOW - IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WERE 8 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURRENCES THRO- UGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS >17 CMEsHAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te Localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 03.05 >1624 >0803 S58E05L088 7 05.05 >1708 >0501 N04W56L099 9 06.05 >1705 >0447 S21W39L081 12 07.05 0754 1225 S01E26L014 6 07.05 >0923 >2323 N17E31L359 19 07.05 1515 1600 N20E28L002 12 07.05 1515 1600 N16E27L003 8 07.05 1530 1700 N08E27L003 25 12542 óíå/1636 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH + N10L099 S22L094 S25L097 N20L101 n/d 06.05 1 SDO, SOHO.. CH - S00L043 S10L030 S20L043 S16L061 33700 09.05 2 G1 SDO, SOHO.. Sch - CH Square in Mm*2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 30.05/18 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. HOWEVER IN THE PERIOD OF 6/18-8/0048 UT THE EARTH WAS IN "+" SECTOR. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 09.05. íáê 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 íáê Wus 075 057 067 055 056 051 042 F10.7 090 090 090 087 090 088 084 èbcg ÷1.3 B2.4 B2.6 ÷2.5 ÷2.2 ÷2.1 ÷2.1 GOES Sp 210 160 370 190 180 200 110 msh N 1 1 IMF - - - - +/- + +/- áóå Å>2 1.1å+7 1.3å+8 2.3å+8 2.0å+8 5.7E+7 4.1E+6 3.9å+6 GOES Ie>2 874 4006 5376 4145 4014 125 326 pfu GOES Ap 33 11 4 8 16 6 72 nT BOULDER Dst -41 -37 -22 -25 -34 -32 -92 nô KIOTO Amsc 21 13 5 8 16 11 54 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE- GINING 3.05/1040 UT AND OBSERVED 3-6.05. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 9-15.05. MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams=46, dur.=12 h.) DEVELOPED AT THE END OF THE DAY 1.05 AND HAS PROCEEDED DURING THE FIRST HOURS 2.05 ACCORDING DATA OF THE CENTER IN BOULDER. HOWEVER ACCORDING DATA OF IZMIRAN IT WAS A 6-hour SUBSTORM G1 INTENSITY. ONE MORE THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams = 22, dur. = 5 h.) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA, HOWEVER ACCORDING CENTER IN BOULDER THIS DISTURBANCE WAS 9 hours SUBSTORM (G1). On MAY 8 THE EARTH WAS PASSED THE SOLAR WIND HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF LOW-LATITUDE CORONAL HOLE OF NEGATIVE POLARI- TY OF THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. BESIDES 8.05/0048 UT THE EARTH HAS CROSSED SECTOR BORDER +/- AND, PERHAPS, IN THE SAME TIME HAS CO- ME DISTURBANCE FROM SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION 5.05 (CME) THAT HAS LED TO THE STRONG MAGNETIC STORM (G3, Ams = 79, dur. = 27 h.). AC- CORDING TO CENTER IN BOULDERI AND (G2, Ams= 54, dur.= 30 h.). AC- CORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETT- LED TILL MAY 15 WHEN TO THE EARTH DISTURBANCE OF COMPLEX STRUCTU- RE FROM SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION ON MAY 7 CAN COME . PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM ~ 40%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru