Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 09 - 15.05.2016, Forecast on 16 - 23.05.2016, Carrington Rotation 2177(10,04.05.2016) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT A AVERAGE LEVEL. THE ESTI- MATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUM- BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old)FOR THE PERIOD IS W=45+8/-5 (WÎ =71+14/-7. 5-3 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE MIDDLE SIZE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK. NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE AVERAGE LEVELS OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVI- TY. THE ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATI- VE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 030+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL 14 AND 15.05 AND THE VERY LOW - IN OTHER DAYS. ON MAY 15 IN THE SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP AR12542 LEAVING FOR THE THE WESTERN LIMB THERE WAS RATHER RARE FLARE EVENT AT PRESENT - AT 11 h. IN AR 6 FLARES OF X-RAY CLASS C WERE OCCURED, AND THE BIGGEST C3.4/SF WAS FOLLOWED BY SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION, CME (type II) AND MINOR SPE. THERE WERE 11 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS > 23 CMEs, ONE WAS TYPE II (angle width 90-180 deg.) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te Localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 10.05 >1642 >1142 N17W25L012 7 12541 10.05 >1642 >1142 S00W32L019 12 10.05 >1642 >1142 S18W33L018 5 10.05 >1642 >1142 N23E56L292 8 11.05 >0129 >1241 N19W23L357 15 12541 11.05 0411 0456 N10W31L005 11 11.05 0701 0736 S04W23L357 16 12.05 1843 2015 N11W52L022 7 13.05 >0125 >1249 N12W60L254 9 13.05 1408 1830 N26E26L268 19 15.05 1515 1530 N10W62L342 ? C3.4 12542 CME/1536 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND, IN CASE OF EMERGENCE OF THE NEW MAGNETIC FLUX IN ONE OF AR, ON THE AVERAGE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH - S00L043 S10L030 S20L043 S16L061 33700 09.05 2 G1 SDO, SOHO.. CH + N50L254 N49L234 N10L304 N13L312 60600 16.05 12 SDO, SOHO.. CH + Pn N50L209 N18L269 N40L309 206100 18.05 SDO, SOHO.. CH + N10L270 S10L240 S18L245 N08L272 ? 20.05 1 SDO, SOHO.. The last CH on last rotation was the gulf of polar (Pn) CH. Sch - CH Square in Mm*2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 14.05/1630 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 09.05. íAY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 íáY Wus 068 070 072 067 076 088 078 F10.7 089 089 094 092 093 101 108 èbcg ÷2.1 B2.6 B2.5 ÷1.9 ÷2.3 ÷2.8 ÷3.7 GOES Sp 210 270 300 350 290 510 770 msh N 1 1 1 1 IMF - - - - - -/+ + áóå Å>2 3.4å+8 1.6å+9 2.9å+9 2.5å+9 1.1E+9 6.4E+7 6.8å+6 GOES Ie>2 16412 44929 48599 42356 35258 2578 1152 pfu GOES Ap 14 6 4 8 11 6 13 nT BOULDER Dst -41 -37 -22 -25 -34 -32 -92 nô KIOTO Amsc 29 15 6 5 9 14 13 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. MINOR SOLAR PROTON EVENT WAS OBSERVED AFTER ó4/15.05 SOLAR FLARE Pr (>10 MeV) tO = 1805 UT, tmax=21 é 2330 UT - 2 pfu; te> 16/12 UT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE- GINING 9.05/0105 UT AND OBSERVED 9 - 15.05, AND 10 - 13.05 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THE CURRENT SOLAR CYCLE THE EXTREME LEVEL OF THE STRE- AM OF RELATIVISTIC ELECTRONS WAS OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. THE LAST 9 HOURS OF THE MAJOR MAGNETIC STORM (see the previous review) (G3, Ams=79, dur.=27 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOLDERE DATA AND (G2, Ams= 54, dur.= 30 h.) TO IZMIRAN DATA HAVE HAD AT 9.05. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED TILL 16.05 WHEN THE EARTH PASSES THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM THE CORONAL HOLE OF THE SOLAR NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. PROBABI- LITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM ~20%. 18.05 EARTH's ENVIRONMENT CAN TOUCH DISTURBATION FROM THE COMPLEX FLARE EVENT 15.05. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM ~ 20%. AND, AT LAST, 19 - 20.05. THE EARTH WILL PASS THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM TRANS EQATORIAL CORONAL HOLE. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM ~ 60%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru