Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 16 - 22.05.2016, Forecast on 23 - 30.05.2016, Carrington Rotation 2177(10,04.05.2016) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT A AVERAGE AND THE LOW LE- VEL. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old)FOR THE PERIOD IS W= 22+24/-13 (WÎ=35+38/-21). 5-2 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE BIG SIZE CONSTANT- LY OBSERVED ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK. NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE AVERAGE LEVELS OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVI- TY. THE ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATI- VE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 030+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL 16, 17 AND 21.05 AND THE VERY LOW -IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WERE 4 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURRENCES THRO- UGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS > 9 CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te Localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 20.05 >0118 >1512 N18W08L210 14 20.05 >0118 >1410 N10W08L210 6 21.05 >1606 >0448 S50W01L214 10 22.05 2028 2212 S07W57L232 7 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND THE VERY LOW. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH + N50L254 N49L234 N10L304 N13L312 60600 16.05 12 SDO, SOHO.. CH + Pn N50L209 N18L269 N40L309 206100 18.05 SDO, SOHO.. CH + N10L270 S10L240 S18L245 N08L272 6900 21.05 1 SDO, SOHO.. CH - S08L174 S19L149 S21L150 S10L180 ? 25.05 2 SDO, SOHO.. CH - N30L132 N25L127 N12L127 N28L137 ? 28.05 3 SDO, SOHO.. Sch - CH Square in Mm*2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 14.05/1630 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 27.05. íáê 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 íáê Wus 076 036 028 038 043 017 015 F10.7 102 103 102 099 093 098 097 èbcg ÷2.8 B2.6 B2.2 ÷1.9 ÷1.8 ÷1.7 ÷1.6 GOES Sp 760 660 590 530 610 550 480 msh N 1 IMF + + + + + + + áóå Å>2 2.3å+7 3.9å+7 3.2å+7 4.1å+7 1.9E+7 1.3E+7 1.7å+7 GOES Ie>2 1269 1372 987 1263 597 612 429 pfu GOES Ap 11 15 9 9 6 18 8 nT BOULDER Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 14 12 9 10 8 18 10 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE- GINING 16.05/1650 UT AND OBSERVED 16 - 17.05. THE SECOND INCREASE OF THE STREAM OF RELATIVISTIC ELECTRONS HAS BEGUN 19.05/1225 UT AND ONLY 19.05 WAS OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED AND ONLY 18.05 THE SUB- STORM is NOTED (G1, dur. = 3 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER AND (G0, dur.=9 h). ACCORDING TO THE IZMIRAN DATA - INFLUENCE OF PO- SITIVE POLARITY TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED. PASSING BY THE EARTH OF HIGH-SPEED STREAMS OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM CO- RONAL HOLES OF NEGATIVE POLARITY CAN CAUSE IN THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD 25 AND 28.05 THE ACTIVE CONDITION. PROBABILITY OF MAGNETIC STORMS LESS THAN 5%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru