Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 23 - 30.05.2016, Forecast on 30.05 - 05.06.2016, Carrington Rotation 2177(10,04.05.2016) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT A LOW LEVEL ALL DAYS, BUT ON MAY 26 AND 28 - ON THE AVERAGE. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYS- TEM (old)FOR THE PERIOD IS W = 14+5/-6 (WÎ = 23+7/-11). ON THE SOLAR VISIBLE DISK 1 - 2 QUIET SUNSPOT GROUPS WERE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED, ONE WAS THE BIG SIZE (AR12546, S07L223, Sp = 550 ÍÐÄ) TILL 22.05, THEN - THE AVERAGE AND ON MAY, 27 HAS LEFT FOR THE WESTERN LIMB. NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE AVERAGE LEVELS OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVI- TY. THE ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATI- VE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 020+20/-15. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL 24 AND 26.05 AND THE VERY LOW-IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WERE 3 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS > 20 CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te Localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 26.05 >1650 >0426 N35E61L079 11 27.06 >0130 >1251 S10E41L117 13 27.05 0542 0917 S44E13L122 11 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND AVERAGE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH + N10L270 S10L240 S18L245 N08L272 6900 21.05 1 SDO, SOHO.. CH - S08L174 S19L149 S21L150 S10L180 ? 25.05 2 SDO, SOHO.. CH - N30L132 N25L127 N12L127 N28L137 30800 28.05 3 SDO, SOHO.. Sch - CH Square in Mm*2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 26.05/22 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 10.06. MAY 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 MAY Wus 013 024 027 030 019 031 025 F10.7 097 094 094 092 090 088 083 èbcg ÷1.5 B1.6 B1.5 ÷1.5 ÷1.8 ÷1.7 ÷1.3 GOES Sp 460 460 380 420 130 140 080 msh N 1 1 IMF + + + +/ - - - áóå Å>2 2.5å+7 2.8å+7 2.8å+7 2.9å+7 3.5E+6 4.5E+6 1.6å+7 GOES Ie>2 516 509 552 579 531 115 564 pfu GOES Ap 4 6 4 3 11 14 7 nT BOULDER Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 6 6 4 6 11 14 10 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED . NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru