------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON MAY 2016 HAS MADE Wmay = 32.1, 52.1 (new) THAT GIVES FOR 80 MONTHS (2015, SEPTEMBER) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*november = 37.8; 61.4 - new system; W*Ïctober = 38.6; 64.4 - new system; - On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of cal- culation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. Almost all the work using smooth W* have to lead to a new system, if it remains. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - VI 2020; THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2016, MAY ACCORDING DATA OF 79 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 87 6.. 57 11.. 80 16.. 56 21.. 17 26.. 35 31.. 35 2.. 83 7.. 34 12.. 85 17.. 38 22.. 29 27.. 35 3.. 71 8.. 45 13.. 79 18.. 31 23.. 16m 28.. 33 4.. 71 9.. 53 14.. 90í 19.. 47 24.. 25 29.. 30 5.. 60 10.. 77 15.. 87 20.. 46 25.. 34 30.. 48 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON 2016, MAY F10.7may = 93.0 F*10.7 oct.= THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2016, MAY Ap may = 11.3 Ap* oct.= ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 30.05 - 05.06.2016, Forecast on 06 - 13.06.2016, Carrington Rotation 2177, 2178 (12,79.04; 06,25.06.2016) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT A LOW LEVEL AND AFTER 3.06 AT VERY LOW LEVEL. FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2014 (1 DAY) THREE DAYS ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK WASN'T THE SUNSPOTS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN- TERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W=13+14/-13 (Wn=20+34/-20). ON THE SOLAR VISIBLE DISK 4 - 0 QUIET SUNSPOT GROUPS WERE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE VERY LOW AND THE LOW LEVELS OF SUNSPOT- FORMING ACTIVITY. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 010+20/-15. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW IN ALL DAYS. THERE WERE TWO SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DA- TA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS > 10 CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te Localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 03.06 2112 2242 N45W06L026 8 05.06 >0040 >1243 S13E13L346 12 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH - N13L044 S13L036 S15L037 N02L060 28500 05.06 3 G3 SDO, SOHO.. CH + N45L300 N35L298 N10L337 N09L339 12.06 13 G0 SDO, SOHO.. Sch - CH Square in Mm*2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 26.05/22 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 10.06. MAY 30 31 01 02 03 04 05 JUNE Wus 056 040 030 027 000 000 000 F10.7 086 087 086 085 083 080 079 èbcg ÷1.4 B1.5 B1.4 ÷1.6 ÷1.3 ÷1.1 ÷1.0 GOES Sp 080 060 070 100 000 000 000 msh N 2 IMF - - -/+ +/- - - - áóå Å>2 3.4å+7 5.0å+7 5.3å+7 6.2å+7 7.1E+7 7.4E+6 1.0å+6 GOES Ie>2 1088 1905 1373 1311 1288 1560 917 pfu GOES Ap 10 10 7 3 3 4 30 nT BOULDER Dst -37 nô KIOTO Amsc 13 12 7 4 7 8 24 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BEGAN AT 30.05/1520 UT AND OBSERVED 30.05 - 04.06. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED ON 07 - 14.06. MINOR MAGNETIC STORM WAS OBSERVED 5-6.05 (G1, Ams= XX, dur.=>9 h.). ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA AND (G2, Ams= XX, dur.= >9 h.). ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA. THE DISTURBANCE HAS TO BE CONSEQUENCE OF RECURRENT PASSING BY THE EARTH THE SOLAR TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HO- LE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND. I WILL REMIND THAT ON LAST SUN's ROTATION SUCH PASSING HAS CAUSED THE STRONGEST MAGNETIC STORM OF THE YEAR AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE MOST PROBABLE ADDITIONAL FACTORS OF SHARP STRENGTHENING OF MAGNETIC DISTURBANCE BECAME PASSING BY THE EARTH OF SECTOR BOUNDARY (+/-) AND DISTURBANCE FROM PROBABLE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru