------------------------------------------------------------------- Dear users, I repeat the review of the current cycle development with specified (on NOAA) sizes of average monthly values in old system on the second Monday. THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON MAY 2016 HAS MADE Wmay = 31.3, 52.1 (new) THAT GIVES FOR 80 MONTHS (2015, SEPTEMBER) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*november = 36.8; 61.4 - new system; W*Ïctober = 38.6; 64.4 - new system; - On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of cal- culation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. Almost all the work using smooth W* have to lead to a new system, if it remains. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - VI 2020; THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2016, MAY ACCORDING DATA OF 79 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 87 6.. 57 11.. 80 16.. 56 21.. 17 26.. 35 31.. 35 2.. 83 7.. 34 12.. 85 17.. 38 22.. 29 27.. 35 3.. 71 8.. 45 13.. 79 18.. 31 23.. 16m 28.. 33 4.. 71 9.. 53 14.. 90í 19.. 47 24.. 25 29.. 30 5.. 60 10.. 77 15.. 87 20.. 46 25.. 34 30.. 48 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON 2016, MAY, AND SMOOTHES ON 2015, NOVEMBER F10.7may = 93.1 F*10.7 nov.= 105.3 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2016, MAY, AND SMOOTHES ON 2015, NOVEMBER Ap may = 11.3 Ap* nov.= 12.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 06 - 12.06.2016, Forecast on 13 - 20.06.2016, Carrington Rotation 2178 (06,25.06.2016) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN CHANGED AT A VARY LOW TO THE AVE- RAGE LEVELS. FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2014 FOUR DAYS ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK WERE SPOTLESS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W = 13+11/-13 (Wn= 21+17/-21). ON THE SOLAR VISIBLE DISK 0 - 3 QUIET SUNSPOT GROUPS WERE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE AVERAGE AND THE LOW LEVELS OF SUNSPOT- FORMING ACTIVITY. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 020+10/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW 9, 11-12.06, AND VERY LOW IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WERE THREE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERI- OD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS > 15 CMEs, ONE (10/2136 UT - backside event) WAS TYPE II (angular width > 90 deg.) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te Localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 06.06 <1704 1824 S33E64L346 11 08.06 >1720 >0438 N17E16L310 10 08.06 >1720 >0438 N52E52L268 10 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH + N45L300 N35L298 N10L337 N09L339 41800 12.06 13 G0 SDO, SOHO.. CH - N15L278 S18L238 S20L248 S05L291 8500 05.06 2 G1 SDO, SOHO.. CH + N60L269 N40L234 N12L249 N40L289 126900 12.06 13 G0 SDO, SOHO.. Sch - CH Square in Mm*2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 10.06/11 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 22.06. JUNE 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 JUNE Wus 000 012 015 022 028 040 039 F10.7 079 079 080 085 085 088 094 èbcg A9.9 B1.1 B1.3 ÷1.2 ÷1.5 ÷1.7 ÷1.7 GOES Sp 000 010 020 140 180 440 500 msh N 1 1 IMF - ~ ~ - -/+ + + áóå Å>2 1.8å+7 4.8å+7 4.0å+7 7.6å+7 7.1E+7 5.3E+6 1.2å+7 GOES Ie>2 801 1496 1151 1556 1586 641 448 pfu GOES Ap 27 11 5 3 13 10 9 nT BOULDER Dst -39 -16 nô KIOTO Amsc 18 11 8 5 10 15 12 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BEGAN AT 07.05/1305 UT AND OBSERVED 7 - 10.06. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. MINOR MAGNETIC STORM WAS OBSERVED 5-6.05 (G1, Ams=30, dur.= 27 h.). ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA AND (G2, Ams= 42, dur.= 27 h.). ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA. THE DISTURBANCE HAS TO BE CONSEQUENCE OF RECURRENT PASSING BY THE EARTH THE SOLAR TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HO- LE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNE- TIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru