Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 13 - 19.06.2016, Forecast on 20 - 27.06.2016, Carrington Rotation 2178 (06,25.06.2016) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN CHANGED AT A LOW TO THE AVERAGE LEVELS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELA- TIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W= 20+9/-7 (Wn= 32+14/-11). ON THE SOLAR VISIBLE DISK 2 - 4 QUIET SUNSPOT GROUPS WERE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE AVERAGE AND THE LOW LEVELS OF SUNSPOT- FORMING ACTIVITY. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 020+10/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW 13 AND 19.06, AND VERY LOW IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WERE THREE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERI- OD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS > 10 CMEs, ONE (16/0748 UT - backside event) WAS TYPE II (angular width > 90 deg.) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te Localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 13.06 1830 1930 NE-limb ? CME 13.06 >0133 >1237 S24E47L222 9 17.06 >0143 >1259 S30E16L200 5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH + N60L269 N40L234 N12L249 N40L289 126900 14.06 13 G0 SDO, SOHO.. CH - S10L191 S30L165 S31L183 S20L205 28200 21.06 2 G0 SDO, SOHO.. CH - N12L180 N08L175 S01L185 N05L190 22.06 2 - SDO, SOHO.. CH - N15L278 S18L238 S20L248 S05L291 24.06 2 - SDO, SOHO.. Sch - CH Square in Mm*2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 10.06/11 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 22.06. JUNE 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 JUNE Wus 027 026 022 026 036 046 048 F10.7 091 088 087 088 087 084 085 èbcg B1.8 B1.2 B1.0 ÷1.1 ÷1.0 ÷1.1 á9.7 GOES Sp 420 390 350 340 410 310 330 msh N 1 1 1 1 IMF + + + + + + + áóå Å>2 1.1å+7 1.6å+7 5.4å+6 9.0å+6 1.4E+7 2.3E+7 3.8å+7 GOES Ie>2 313 581 215 226 442 812 1032 pfu GOES Ap 10 20 14 6 9 9 5 nT BOULDER Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 11 20 11 9 11 10 7 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS OB- SERVED 19.06. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED ALL DAYS EXCEPT 14.06 WHEN ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER AT THE END OF THE DAYS IT IS NOTED INTENSIVE (G2) SUBSTORM 9 h. DURATION. ACCORDING THE IZMIRAN DATA THE INTESIVE OF THE SUBSTORM WAS G1, AND DURATION OF 6 h. THE DISTURBANCE HAS TO BE CONSEQUENCE OF RECURRENT PASSING BY THE EARTH THE SOLAR TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SO- LAR WIND. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru