Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 20 - 26.06.2016, Forecast on 27.06 - 04.07.2016, Carrington Rotation 2178 (06,25.06.2016) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN CHANGED AT THE AVERAGE TO THE VE- RY LOW LEVELS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PE- RIOD IS W=07+14/-7 (Wn= 10+24/-10). ON THE SOLAR VISIBLE DISK 3 - 0 QUIET SUNSPOT GROUPS WERE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE VERY LOW AND THE LOW LEVELS OF SUNSPOT- FORMING ACTIVITY. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 020+10/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW. THERE WERE TWO SOLAR FILAMENT EJEC- CTION OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS > 10 CMEs, THREE (20/1636, 21/0400, 25/0248 UT -backside event) WAS TYPE II (angular width>90 deg.)HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te Localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 21.06 2054 2236 N03W36L200 14 22.06 0526 1402 N44E47L103 26 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH - S10L191 S30L165 S31L183 S20L205 28200 21.06 2 G0 SDO, SOHO.. CH - N12L180 N08L175 S01L185 N05L190 22.06 2 - SDO, SOHO.. CH - N15L278 S18L238 S20L248 S05L291 24.06 2 - SDO, SOHO.. CH + N30L103 N29L103 N05L110 N15L111 7800 30.06 1 SDO, SOHO.. CH - N80L068 S18L040 S21L043 N07L070 02.07 4 G2 SDO, SOHO.. Sch - CH Square in Mm*2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 22.06/05 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 8 - 9.07. JUNE 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 JUNE Wus 035 022 022 000 000 000 000 F10.7 084 080 078 078 076 077 077 èbcg A8.4 A8.6 A8.0 A8.2 A8.3 A9.3 á7.7 GOES Sp 310 200 160 000 000 000 000 msh N IMF + + +/- - - - - áóå Å>2 4.6å+7 5.4å+7 4.1å+7 3.2å+6 1.5E+6 6.0E+7 6.8å+7 GOES Ie>2 942 1030 1181 135 1926 3009 pfu GOES Ap 3 3 14 11 11 7 12 nT BOULDER Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 4 7 11 10 15 13 13 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS DE- GAN AT 21/1649 AND 25/1325 UT, AND OBSERVED 21 - 22 AND 25 - 26.06. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 27.06 - 02.07. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED ALL DAYS. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED BEFORE 02.07 WHEN THE EARTH WILL PASS THE RECURRENT THE SOLAR TRANS- EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND. PROBA- BILITY OF VAGNETIC STORM IS VORE 40%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru