------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JUNE 2016 HAS MADE Wjune = 12.5, 20.9 (new) THAT GIVES FOR 81 MONTHS (2015, DECEMBER) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*dec. = 34.7; 57.9 - (new system) W*nov. = 36.8; 61.4 - (new system) - On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of cal- culation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. Almost all the work using smooth W* have to lead to a new system, if it remains. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - VI 2020; THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2016, JUNE ACCORDING DATA OF 77 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 41 6.. 0m 11.. 43 16.. 28 21.. 24 26.. 0m 2.. 14 7.. 19 12.. 42 17.. 40 22.. 23 27.. 0m 3.. 0m 8.. 15 13.. 40 18.. 48 23.. 12 28.. 0m 4.. 10 9.. 19 14.. 38 19.. 50M 24.. 12 29.. 0m 5.. 0m 10.. 32 15.. 41 20.. 36 25.. 0m 30.. 0m THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON 2016, JUNE, AND SMOOTHES ON 2015, NOVEMBER F10.7may = 81.9 F*10.7 dec.= THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2016, JUNE, AND SMOOTHES ON 2015, NOVEMBER Ap may = 8.2 Ap* dec.= ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 27.06 - 03.07.2016, Forecast on 04 - 11.07.2016, Carrington Rotations 2178, 2179 (06,25.06; 03,07.2016) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED ON VERY LOW LEVEL. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W = 000 (Wn = 000). THE SOLAR VISIBLE REMAINED SPOTLESS ALREDY 11 DAYS. NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE VERY LOW AND THE LOW LEVELS OF SUNSPOT- FORMING ACTIVITY. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 020+10/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW. THERE WERE THREE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS > 14 CMEs, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te Localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 27.06 0929 0949 N25E59L038 7 01.07 >0028 >1428 N13W04L036 11 03.07 >0104 >1244 N33W04L023 33 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH + N30L103 N29L103 N05L110 N15L111 7800 30.06 1 SDO, SOHO.. CH - N80L068 S18L040 S21L043 N07L070 16000 02.07 4 G2 SDO, SOHO.. CH + N45L>269 N40L>269 N03L352 N05L354 07.07 12 G0 SDO, SOHO.. Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 30.06/1630 TO 2/1930 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTER- PLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 8 - 9.07. JUNE 27 28 29 30 01 02 03 JULY Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 F10.7 075 073 074 073 072 071 072 èbcg A7.2 A6.5 A6.0 A5.5 A5.3 A5.3 á7.2 GOES Sp 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 msh N IMF - - - -/+ + +/- - áóå Å>2 4.7å+7 7.7å+7 8.5å+7 6.8å+7 6.3E+6 7.3E+6 7.8å+5 GOES Ie>2 1257 2164 2248 2299 233 287 pfu GOES Ap 10 6 4 7 8 9 9 nT BOULDER Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 8 9 6 7 8 9 12 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE- GAN AT 25/1325 UT, AND OBSERVED 25 - 30.06. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED ALL DAYS. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED BEFORE 07.07 WHEN THE EARTH WILL PASS THE RECURRENT THE SOLAR CORO- NAL HOLE "+" POLARITY HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND. PROBABI- LITY OF MAGNETIC STORM IS NEAR 20%. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION EXPECTEC- TED QUIET AND UNSETTLED IN OTHER DAYS. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru