------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JUNE 2016 HAS MADE Wjune = 12.5, 20.9 (new) THAT GIVES FOR 81 MONTHS (2015, DECEMBER) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*dec. = 34.7; 57.9 - (new system) W*nov. = 36.8; 61.4 - (new system) - On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of cal- culation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. Almost all the work using smooth W* have to lead to a new system, if it remains. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - VI 2020; THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2016, JUNE ACCORDING DATA OF 77 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 41 6.. 0m 11.. 43 16.. 28 21.. 24 26.. 0m 2.. 14 7.. 19 12.. 42 17.. 40 22.. 23 27.. 0m 3.. 0m 8.. 15 13.. 40 18.. 48 23.. 12 28.. 0m 4.. 10 9.. 19 14.. 38 19.. 50M 24.. 12 29.. 0m 5.. 0m 10.. 32 15.. 41 20.. 36 25.. 0m 30.. 0m THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON 2016, JUNE, AND SMOOTHES ON 2015, NOVEMBER F10.7may = 81.9 F*10.7 dec.= 102.5 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2016, JUNE, AND SMOOTHES ON 2015, NOVEMBER Ap may = 8.2 Ap* dec.= 12.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 04 - 10.07.2016, Forecast on 11 - 18.07.2016, Carrington Rotation 2179 (03,07.2016) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED ON VERY LOW, LOW, AND AVERAGE LEVELS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W =019+19/-19 (Wn = 031+29/-31). ON THE SOLAR VISIBLE DISK 0 - 4 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS WERE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED. THE SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP AR12564 GIVES THE GOOD EXAMPLE OF ACTIVE REGION IN WHICH THERE WERE ONLY IMPULSE FLARES, THOUGH LOW CLASS. NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE AVERAGE AND THE LOW LEVELS OF SUNSPOT- FORMING ACTIVITY. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 020+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL 7 - 10.08 AND THE VERY LOW - IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WERE FOUR SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURRENCES THRO- UGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONO- GRAPHS > 14 CMEs, ONE TYPE II (angular width >90 deg.) HAVE BEEN OB- SERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 10.07 0053 0059 0110 N11E69L207 C8.6/2F 2.6E-03 12564 II/3 CME/0125 DSF to te Localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 05.07 0838 1150 S34W39L018 9 05.07 >1732 >0458 N03E60L279 8 08.07 >0029 >1314 N46E06L290 14 10.07 2007 2107 S32E44219 7 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH + N55L246 N45L226 N08L261 N08L360 148000 7-10.07 13 G0 SDO, SOHO.. CH + N15L278 S05L276 S07L278 S03L290 16000 11-12.07 2 G0 SDO, SOHO.. The first is part of polar CH; Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 06.07/1730 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 19.07. JULY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 JULY Wus 000 023 011 025 055 063 046 F10.7 074 072 077 083 087 092 094 èbcg A7.8 A7.9 ÷1.2 ÷1.6 ÷2.2 ÷2.2 ÷2.5 GOES Sp 000 020 010 060 120 170 190 msh N IMF - - -/+ + + + + áóå Å>2 4.7å+6 5.6å+6 7.2å+6 1.3å+5 1.7E+7 7.9E+7 1.4å+8 GOES Ie>2 144 169 200 908 3008 4159 pfu GOES Ap 7 4 5 25 24 15 9 nT BOULDER Dst -23 -18 nô KIOTO Amsc 7 6 8 26 20 16 13 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE- GAN AT 9/1400 UT, AND OBSERVED 9 - 10.06. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 11 - 12.07. THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams = 31, dur. = 15 h). IZMIRAN 7-8.07 IS REGISTERED, BUT ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER IT WAS INTEN- SIVE (G1) SUBSTORM DURATION of 9 HOURS. 8.07 IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY THE SITUATION EXCHANGED: THE CENTER IN BOULDER HAS NOTED THE MI- NOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=31, dur.= 15 h), AND ON DATA OF IZMIRAN IT WAS 9-HOUR SUBSTORM, INTENSITY (G0). GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN CAUSED BY EARTH's PASSING OF THE SOLAR WIND HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM SOLAR CORONAL HOLE ("+" POLARITY)OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. AT DETERMINATION OF CORONAL HOLES GEOEFFICIENCY IT IS NECESSARY TO CON- SIDER THAT THE EARTH HAS RISEN OVER THE ECLIPTIC BY 4th DEGREES. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED ACTIVE ON JULY 11 - 12 WHEN THE FOLLOWING TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE, TOO POSITIVE POLA- RITY, COMES TO THE GEOEFFECTIVE POSITION. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNE- TIC STORM NOT LESS THAN 30%. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru