Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
               Highlights on 11 - 17.07.2016,
              Forecast on 18 - 25.07.2016,
          Carrington Rotation 2179 (03,07.2016)
  
SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN  REMAINED ON AVERAGE LEVEL. THE 
ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT 
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W=035+9/
-4 (WÎ=055+20/-6). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK  3 - 5 SUNSPOT GROUPS 
TWO MIDDLE SIZE (COMPONENT OF COMPLEX OF ACTIVE REGION - CAR) WERE 
CONSTANTLY OBSERVED. 

 NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE AVERAGE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTI-
VITY. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATI-
VE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WE-
EK IS W = 030+20/-10. 

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL 15 - 17.08 AND THE VERY LOW - IN
OTHER DAYS.  THERE WERE TWO SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURRENCES THRO-
UGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO  AND  STEREO  CORONO-
GRAPHS >6 CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES   to   tm   te   local.     Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV   CME
                                  X-ray/Ïp  J/m-2
                                  
DSF     to      te  Localization   l × ÇÒÁÄ.   Fl     Aï      CME/to
16.07 >0131     >1546   N11E65        10                    
16.07  >1725    >0454   N18E36L       10                    
----------------------------------------------------------------------
NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND, IN CASE OF FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT OF SUNSPOT GROUPS ENTERING CAR AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch   EE   R G  Space Obser.
CH +   N15L278 S05L276 S07L278 S03L290  16000 11-12.07 2 G0 SDO, SOHO..
CH -   S19L209 S28L184 S31L189 S25L216  21500    18.07 3 G0 SDO, SOHO..
CH +   N31L170 N28L146 N15L158 N25L180 148000    20.07 3 G0 SDO, SOHO..
The first is part of polar CH;
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
FROM 06.07/1730 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 19.
07.

JULY     11     12     13     14     15     16     17      JULY
Wus     062    063    054    054    073    047    051      
F10.7   095    092    097    095    102    107    105 
èbcg   ÷2.0   ÷1.8   ÷1.7   ÷1.7   ÷2.4   ÷3.5   ÷3.4      GOES
Sp      240    300    240    250    510    530    680  msh   
N        1                           3              
IMF      +      +      +      +      +      +      +        áóå   
Å>2  1.1å+8 3.4å+7 1.6å+8 1.6å+8 8.8E+7 1.5E+8 2.1å+8       GOES
Ie>2   4449   1311   4515   4181   2438   4313   5512  pfu  GOES 
Ap       11     22     8      13     11     8      5   nT   BOULDER 
Dst                                 -23    -18         nô   KIOTO 
Amsc     13     16     7      15     13     10     8   nT   IZMIRAN 
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE-
GAN AT 9/1400 UT, AND OBSERVED 9 - 17.06. 

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY 
HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 18 - 21.07.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. THE SUB-
STORM OF INTENSITY OF G1 DURATION 9 h.  ACCORDING TO THE CENTER  IN 
BOULDER IS NOTED AT THE BEGINNING OF DAYS ON JULY 12,  ACCORDING TO 
IZMIRAN DATA AT THIS DAY THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAIND UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED ACTIVE ON JULY, 18 - 20 
BECAUSE OF INFLUENCE OF CORONAL HOLES. 21.07 IS POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF 
DISTURBANCE FROM VERY LONG FLARE (C1 CLASS) IN CAR ON JULY 17. PRO-
BABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM NOT LESS THAN 30%. IN OTHER DAYS THE 
GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru