Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 18 - 24.07.2016, Forecast on 25 - 31.07.2016, Carrington Rotation 2179, 2180 (03,07, 30,65.2016) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED ON THE AVERAGE AND THE LOW LEVELS AT LAST DAY OF PERIODS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W=027+14/-17 (WÎ= 041+24/-26). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 4 - 1 SUNSPOT GROUPS TWO MIDDLE SIZE (COM- PONENTS OF ACTIVE REGION COMPLEX - CAR) WERE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE AVERAGE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTI- VITY. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATI- VE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WE- EK IS W = 020+10/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH LEVEL 23, THE AVERAGE - 20, 22 AND 24.07, AND THE LOW IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WAS ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJEC- TION OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS >12 CMEs, ONE TYPE II (angular width 90 -180 deg.) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 21.07 0042 0046 >0050 N03W42L168 M1.2/ 3.5E-03 12567 21.07 0134 0149 >0204 N02W43L168 M1.0/ 1.2E-02 12567 23.07 0146 0211 >0223 N05W73L168 M5.0/ 5.4E-02 12567 23.07 0500 0516 0633 N02W74L168 M7.6/3B 4.6E-02 12567 CME/0524, 0630 0527 0531 0633 M5.5/3B 1.1E-02 12567 II/1 IV/2 24.07 0609 0620 >0632 N03W84L168 M2.0/SF 1.7E-02 12567 24.07 1730 1743 >1812 M1.9/ 3.6E-02 12567 DSF to te Localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 23.07 >0140 >1257 N41E48L042 7 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH - S19L209 S28L184 S31L189 S25L216 21500 18.07 3 G0 SDO, SOHO.. CH - N31L170 N28L146 N15L158 N25L180 148000 20.07 3 G0 SDO, SOHO.. CH + N30L090 N25L087 N15L105 N18L108 9400 25.07 2 G0 SDO, SOHO.. CH + Pn N55L031 N28L086 N40L094 74100 26.07 2 G0 SDO, SOHO.. CH - N10L066 N08L064 S15L071 S02L078 22200 28.07 5 G0 SDO, SOHO.. The 3rd and 4th is part of polar CH; Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 20.07/0011 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. HOWEVER 22/15 - 23/02 UT THE SIGN OF THE FIELD WAS "+". THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 27.07. JULY 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 JULY Wus 068 058 056 049 036 034 016 F10.7 107 101 108 100 090 086 082 èbcg ÷2.4 ÷2.6 ÷2.8 ÷4.1 ÷2.5 ÷4.0 ÷3.5 GOES Sp 660 720 850 640 580 460 150 msh N 1 IMF + + +/- - +/- - - áóå Å>2 2.9å+8 3.4å+5 9.7å+5 4.0å+5 5.1E+5 2.6E+6 3.6å+6 GOES Ie>2 6229 7070 3426 pfu GOES Ap 3 8 22 4 7 8 15 nT BOULDER Dst -26 -10 -18 -22 -19 nô KIOTO Amsc 7 8 23 9 13 12 18 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE- GAN AT 9/1400 UT, AND OBSERVED 9 - 20.06. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 27 - 31.07. MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams= 43, dlit.= 12 h). ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA AND MINOR (G1, Ams=43, dur.=12 h). BY IZMIRAN DATA IS REGISTERED ON JULY 19 - 20, AS A RESULT OF PASS BY THE EARTH OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM SOLAR CORONAL HOLE "-" POLARITY OF THE SOLAR NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE SECOND MINOR MAGNETIC STORM HAS BE- GUN IN THE SECOND HALF 24.07 AND STILL PROCEEDS. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO QUITE. NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED ACTIVE ON JULY, 25 - 26 AND 28 BECAUSE OF INFLUENCE OF CORONAL HOLES AND FLARE ACTIVITY 22- 24.07. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM NOT LESS THAN 5%. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru