------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JULY 2016 HAS MADE Wjuly = 32.5, 19.0 (Î.) THAT GIVES FOR 84 MONTHS (2016, JANUARY) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*Jan. = 32.5; 54.5 - in new system W*Dec. = 34.7; 57.9 - in new system - On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of cal- culation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. Almost all the work using smooth W* have to lead to a new system, if it remains. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - VI 2020; THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2016, JULY ACCORDING DATA OF 77 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 0m 6.. 13 11.. 62 16.. 61 21.. 52 26.. 0m 31.. 16 2.. 12 7.. 25 12.. 59 17.. 39 22.. 39 27.. 0m 3.. 19 8.. 42 13.. 53 18.. 64 23.. 28 28.. 13 4.. 0m 9.. 55 14.. 58 19.. 59 24.. 13 29.. 16 5.. 13 10.. 50 15.. 69í 20.. 57 25.. 0m 30.. 21 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON 2016, JULYE, AND SMOOTHES ON 2016, JANUARY F10.7 july = XXX F*10.7 jan.= THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2016, JULY, AND SMOOTHES ON 2016, JANUARY Ap july = XXX Ap* jan.= ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 25 - 31.07.2016, Forecast on 01 - 07.08.2016, Carrington Rotation 2179, 2180 (03,07, 30,65.2016) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED ON THE VERY LOW LEVELS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W=004 +1/-4 (WÎ= 07+5/-7). ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN 0-1 SUNSPOT GROUP WAS CONSTANTLY OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE AVERAGE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVI- TY. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 020+10/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW AND 25.07 - THE LOW LEVELS. THERE WAS THREE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. AC- CORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS > 3 CMEs. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te Localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 26.07 >0908 >2335 N13E53L013 8 28.07 >1359 >1805 N03W03L043 25 CME 29.07 >1721 >0433 N13W15L028 7 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH + Pn N55L031 N28L086 N40L094 74100 26.07 2 G0 SDO, SOHO.. CH - N10L066 N08L064 S15L071 S02L078 22200 28.07 5 G0 SDO, SOHO.. CH + N20L345 N09L339 S07L010 N03L018 38600 02.08 5 G0 SDO, SOHO.. CH + Pn N38L031 N28L086 N40L094 05.08 4 G0 SDO, SOHO.. Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 20.07/0011 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. THE CERTAIN + SIGN REGIONS WERE OBSERVED 22-23 AND 25 - 26.07. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY - / + THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 03.08. JULY 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 JULY Wus 000 000 000 013 013 013 012 F10.7 107 101 108 070 071 071 072 èbcg ÷1.3 A7.8 A5.5 A5.0 A5.9 A5.2 A5.4 GOES Sp 000 000 000 010 010 010 010 msh N 1 IMF -/+ +/- - - - - - áóå Å>2 1.1å+7 3.3å+7 6.3å+7 3.3å+6 9.2E+6 3.0E+7 5.2å+7 GOES Ie>2 622 944 1671 956 317 1133 1110 pfu GOES Ap 19 4 4 15 14 6 3 nT BOULDER Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 21 7 6 14 12 10 4 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAS BE- GUN 27/1340 UT And 27.07 were OBSERVED. The SECOND INCREASE HAS BE- GUN 30/1600 And was OBSERVED on JULY 30 - 31. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams = 32, ÄÌÉÔ. = 12 Þ.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA AND (G1, Ams= 31, ÄÌÉÔ.=15 Þ.) BY IZMIRAN DA- TA IS REGISTERED ON JULY 24 - 25 AS A RESULT OF PASS BY THE EARTH OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM SOLAR CORONAL HOLE "+" POLARITY OF THE SO- SOLAR NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO QUITE. NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED ACTIVE ON 2.08 BECAUSE OF INFLUENCE AS A RESULT OF PASS BY THE EARTH OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM SOLAR CORONAL HOLE "+" POLARITY OF THE SOLAR NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AND DISTURBATION FROM SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION 28.07. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM ~ 40%. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAG- NETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru