------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JULY 2016 HAS MADE Wjuly = 32.5, 19.0 (Î.) THAT GIVES FOR 84 MONTHS (2016, JANUARY) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*Jan. = 32.5; 54.5 - in new system W*Dec. = 34.7; 57.9 - in new system - On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of cal- culation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. Almost all the work using smooth W* have to lead to a new system, if it remains. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - VI 2020; THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2016, JULY ACCORDING DATA OF 77 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 0m 6.. 13 11.. 62 16.. 61 21.. 52 26.. 0m 31.. 16 2.. 12 7.. 25 12.. 59 17.. 39 22.. 39 27.. 0m 3.. 19 8.. 42 13.. 53 18.. 64 23.. 28 28.. 13 4.. 0m 9.. 55 14.. 58 19.. 59 24.. 13 29.. 16 5.. 13 10.. 50 15.. 69í 20.. 57 25.. 0m 30.. 21 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON 2016, JULYE, AND SMOOTHES ON 2016, JANUARY F10.7 july = 86.0 F*10.7 jan.= 99.9 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2016, JULY, AND SMOOTHES ON 2016, JANUARY Ap july = 8.9 Ap* jan.= 12.3 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 01 - 07.08 2016, Forecast on 01 - 07.08.2016, Carrington Rotation 2180 (30,65.2016) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL 1-4.08 áND ON THE MIDDLE -IN OTHER DAYS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W=013+25/-13 (Wn= 21+39/-21). ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN 0 - 4 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP FORMNG TWO COMPLEXES OF ACTIVE REGIONS WERE OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE AVERAGE AND THE LOW LEVELS OF SUNSPOT- FORMING ACTIVITY. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 030+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL AT 7.08, AND THE VERY LOW IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WERE FOUR SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORO- NOGRAPHS > 2 CMEs. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 07.08 1437 1444 1448 S15W88L160 M1.3 4.6E-03 Â/Ð DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 03.08 >1730 >0443 N27E24L300 12 04.08 >0117 >1300 N26W46L348 6 05.08 >0050 >1251 N37W45L312 6 05.08 0818 0940 N43W55L331 9 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS. HOWE- VER ALSO SEPARATE FLARES OF MIDDLE CLASSES ARE POSSIBLE. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH + N20L345 N09L339 S07L010 N03L018 38600 02.08 5 G0 SDO, SOHO.. CH + Pn N38L031 N28L086 N40L094 05.08 4 G0 SDO, SOHO.. Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 02.08/2030 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY + / - THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 17.08. AUGUST 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 AUGUST Wus 013 011 000 000 036 033 063 F10.7 072 075 075 076 080 083 093 èbcg á5.3 A5.2 A5.7 A6.2 A8.6 ÷1.1 ÷2.5 GOES Sp 010 010 000 000 080 120 380 msh N 2 2 IMF - -/+ + + + + + áóå Å>2 5.8å+7 2.0å+7 3.4å+7 9.9å+7 1.6E+8 4.8E+8 3.7å+8 GOES Ie>2 1166 906 201 4929 5210 16205 10111 pfu GOES Ap 3 17 32 19 18 14 13 nT BOULDER Dst -20 -53 -32 -30 -26 -21 nô KIOTO Amsc 4 24 30 19 20 14 9 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAS BE- GUN 4/1315 UT AND 5-7.08 WERE OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 8 - 10.08. MINOR THE MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=38, dur.=24 h). ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER AND (G1, Ams=37, dlit.= 30 h). BY DATA IZMIRAN IS MARKED OUT 2 - 3.08, AS A RESULT OF ARRIVAL TO THE EARTH THE DISTUR- BATION (CME) FROM SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION 29.07 AND PASSING BY THE EARTH OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM CORONAL HOLE "+" POLARITY OF SO- LAR NORTHERN HEMISPHERE THAT HAS PROVIDED TO ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CON- DITION 4-5.08. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED WAS UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru