Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 08 - 14.08 2016, Forecast on 15 - 22.08.2016, Carrington Rotation 2180 (30,65.2016) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W = 046+9/-2 (Wn= 073+14/-3). ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN 6 - 4 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP FORMNG TWO COMPLEXES OF ACTIVE REGIONS WERE OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE MIDDLE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT-FORMING AC- TIVITY. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 030+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL AT 8, 9, 11 AND 14.08, AND THE VERY LOW IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WERE TWO SOLAR FILAMENT EJEC- TIONS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA > 5 CMEs, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 09.08 2335 0237 N26E60L171 33 11.08 1019 1408 N22E10L194 10 12574 CME ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS. HOWE- VER ALSO SEPARATE FLARES OF MIDDLE CLASSES ARE POSSIBLE. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH + S18L195 S30L175 S35L190 S19L180 14.08 4 G0 SDO, SOHO.. Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 11.08/14 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY - / + THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 17.08. AUGUST 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 AUGUST Wus 091 072 069 082 086 073 061 F10.7 096 092 095 095 095 091 087 èbcg B4.3 B2.1 B1.6 B1.4 B1.5 ÷1.2 ÷1.0 GOES Sp 490 580 550 520 590 480 440 msh N 2 1 IMF + + + +/- - - - áóå Å>2 2.3å+8 1.2å+8 2.2å+8 2.7å+8 2.4E+8 4.9E+8 4.3å+8 GOES Ie>2 11010 4147 5975 10558 7552 12032 10062 pfu GOES Ap 13 14 17 9 11 5 4 nT BOULDER Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 15 15 12 10 13 11 6 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAS BE- GUN 4/1315 UT AND 5 - 14.08 WERE OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 15 - 18.08. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WERE UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE. NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru