Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 15 - 21.08 2016, Forecast on 22 - 29.08.2016, Carrington Rotation 2180, 2181 (30,65.07;26.89.08.2016) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL TILL 19.08 AND ON VERY LOW IN OTHER DAYS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LI- KELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W=028+21/-21 (WÎ=045 +33/-34). ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN 5-1 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP. NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE VERY LOW AND THE LOW LEVELS OF SUN- SPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 010+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL AT 15.08, AND THE VERY LOW IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WERE THREE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS OCCUR- RENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STEREO CORO- NOGRAPHS DATA > 5 CMEs, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 15.08 1541 1721 N28E90L>247 >10 CME/1736 16.08 >0027 >1421 N21W64L207 6 19.08 >0109 >1319 N43W03L092 28 CME/1948? ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH - N40L125 N30L125 N15L143 N25L148 19.08 6 G1 SDO, SOHO.. CH - S05L086 S18L071 S22L083 S10L091 23.08 6 G0 SDO, SOHO.. Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 11.08/14 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. 19 - 20.08 SIGN OF THE FIELD REPEATEDLY CHANGED. THE FOL- LOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY - / + THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 29.08. AUGUST 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 AUGUST Wus 070 081 064 054 037 012 011 F10.7 088 087 083 082 081 078 077 èbcg A9.9 A9.1 A8.2 A8.2 A8.6 A9.4 A8.3 GOES Sp 440 310 270 250 130 010 010 msh N 1 IMF - -/+ + + +/- -/+ + áóå Å>2 4.6å+8 2.3å+8 4.9å+6 1.6å+6 5.7E+6 7.1E+6 8.2å+6 GOES Ie>2 9574 6711 617 230 206 889 pfu GOES Ap 3 5 9 7 5 4 10 nT BOULDER Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 7 7 9 6 9 6 13 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAS BE- GUN 4/1315 UT AND 5 - 16.08 WERE OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WERE QUITE AND UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED. THE- RE IS A SMALL PROBABILITY OF THE ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION 23.08 WHEN THE EARTH PASSES THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF FROM THE CORONAL HOLE OF THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru