Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 12 - 18.09 2016, Forecast on 19 - 26.09.2016, Carrington Rotation 2181, 2182 (26,89.08; 23,15.09.2016) Earth above the ecliptic + 7.25 degrees. SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY REMAINED AT AN AVERAGE LEVEL ONLY 12 AND 18.09, ON A LOW - 13, 14.09, AT VERY LOW ON OTHER DAYS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W = 017+17/-10 (Wn= 027+28/-15). ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN 4 - 1 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP WERE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED ON THE VISIB- LE SOLAR DISK. NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE AVERAGE AND THE LOW LEVELS. THE ES- TIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=020+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. THERE WERE FIVE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA > 5 CMEs, ONE WAS TYHE II, (angular width 90-180 deg) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 13.09 1909 2006 N16W52L122 8 12589 14.09 0642 0842 N03W53L 11 12589 14.09 1032 1152 N19W56L 6 12589 16.09 >0003 >1329 N46E01L 6 16.09 1044 1406 N15W36L 8 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH - N35L134 N28L109 N25L144 N30L154 14.09 7 G1 SDO, SOHO.. CH - S25L152 S40L165 Ps S35L155 5600 15.09 G0 SDO, SOHO.. CH - N07L065 S30L055 S35L080 S15L090 20800 18.09 5 G0 SDO, SOHO.. Last CH 16.09 split in two, but again one 18.09; Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 15.09/20 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 25.09. SEPTEMBER 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 SEPTEMBER Wus 057 027 024 012 013 014 047 F10.7 087 086 085 084 084 080 083 èbcg á8.3 B1.1 B1.3 B1.0 á7.4 á9.9 á9.2 GOES Sp 290 060 030 010 010 010 040 msh N 1 2 IMF -/+ +/- -/+ +/- - - - áóå Å>2 9.1å+7 4.2å+7 2.3å+7 1.1å+5 1.0E+5 5.6E+4 1.7å+6 GOES Ie>2 6738 5911 2066 121 147 pfu GOES Ap 6 5 9 7 3 4 8 nT BOULDER Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 6 6 11 7 4 4 8 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE- GINING 02/1305 UT AND OBSERVED 12 - 14.09. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO QUITE. NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION UNSETTLED AND QUIET IS EXPECTED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru