------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON SEPTEMBER 2016 HAS MADE Wsep. = 26.8 44.7(n.) THAT GIVES FOR 86 MONTHS (2016, MARCH) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*mar. = 30.4; 50.6 - new W*feb = 31.6; 52.6 - new - On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of cal- culation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - VI 2020; THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2016, SEPTEMBER ACCORDING DATA OF 73 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 78 6.. 42 11.. 67 16.. 13 21.. 54 26.. 28 2.. 67 7.. 58 12.. 59 17.. 14 22.. 36 27.. 26 3.. 65 8.. 54 13.. 39 18.. 39 23.. 60 28.. 31 4.. 50 9.. 79M 14.. 27 19.. 63 24.. 55 29.. 17 5.. 31 10.. 77 15.. 15 20.. 53 25.. 31 30.. 12m THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON 2016, SEPTEMBER, AND SMOOTHES ON 2016, MARCH F10.7 sep. = 87.8 F*10.7 mar.= 96.6 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2016, SEPTEMBER, AND SMOOTHES ON 2016, MARCH Ap sep. = 16 Ap* mar.= 11.8 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 24.09 - 02.10 2016, Forecast on 03 - 10.10.2016, Carrington Rotation 2181, 2182 (26,89.08; 23,15.09.2016) Earth above the ecliptic + 6.7 deg. (S20-N30 geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY REMAINED AT AN AVERAGE LEVEL ONLY 24. 09, AT A LOW 26 - 30.09 and 2.10, 1.10 WAS SPOTLESS DAY. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W = 011+10/-11 (Wn=018+27 /-18). ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN 3-0 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP WERE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK. NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE LOW AND THE AVERAGE LEVELS. THE ES- TIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=020+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL 25 AND 27.09 AND THE VERY LOW IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WERE SEVEN SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS OCCURREN- CES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STEREO CORONO- GRAPHS DATA >12 CMEs ONE WAS TYPE II (angular width before 90 deg.) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 27.09 0005 0105 N16W77L025 17 27.09 >0940 >2237 S34W15L312 10 27.09 2248 2308 S26W43L338 11 27.09 >2354 >1344 N03E03L292 16 27.09 >2354 >1344 S03W28L326 9 01.10 0139 N26E27L228 36 CME/0248/82 ÇÒÁÄ 01.10 1355 1407 NE (EPL) 0.19R CME/1424/II. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH + N09L013 S05L009 S10L011 S07L018 4200 25.09 4 G1 SDO, SOHO.. CH + Pn N45L194 N20L344 N18L354 275700 28.09 3 G0 SDO, SOHO.. CH + N10L274 S20L254 S22L264 N08L314 48800 30.09 6 G0 SDO, SOHO.. Last CH is part of polar CH; Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 25.09/17 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 12.10. óåîôñâòø 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 01 02 ïëôñâòø Wus 047 018 023 021 020 017 012 000 013 F10.7 085 085 087 086 084 083 081 081 082 èbcg B1.0 á9.8 B1.6 B1.5 á8.5 B1.5 B1.6 B1.1 B1.1 GOES Sp 180 060 070 110 100 100 060 000 010 ÍÄÐ N 1 IMF - -/+ + + + + + + + áóå Å>2 1.3å+7 5.3å+5 3.9å+6 9.5å+7 3.8E+8 4.9E+8 1.9E+9 2.4E+9 1.0E+9 GOES Ie>2 341 235 6692 2393 17486 74718 81034 53511 pfu Ap 4 19 23 40 43 36 22 18 21 BOULDER Dst -36 -43 -43 -49 -61 -35 -39 -32 KIOTO Amsc 13 23 20 29 41 36 25 - 17 éúíéòáî ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE- GINING 27/1525 UT AND OBSERVED 27.09 - 02.10. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 03 - 11.10. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUITE (24.10) TO ACTIVE. MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams= 32, dur.= 12 h.) According to the Center in BOULDER REGISTERED IN THE FIRST HALF DAYS 20.09. ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA THIS DAY MARKED ONLY ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION. ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER AFTER 6 h. OF SUBSTORM (G1) 25.09 IN THE END OF THE DAY STARTED MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams=35, dur. =114 h.). ACCORDING IZMIRAN AFTER SUBSTORM (G1, dur. = 6 h.) AT THE END OF DAY 25.09, THE FIRST MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams=25, dur.= 15 h.) REGISTERED 26 - 27.09. AT THE END OF THE DAY 27.09 MARKED BY INTENSIVE (6 h., G2)SUBSTORM. AT 28.09 THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY MO- DERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams=46, dur.=30 h.). AS FOR 1.10 NO IZMI- RAN DATA NEXT MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams= 27, long.= 12 h.) MAR- KED ONLY 2.10. NEXT WEEK 4-5.10 TO EARTH WILL BE GO THE DISTURBANCE FROM FILAMENT ERUPTION AT 01.10/0125 UT. ANALYSIS SWPC COMMAND IS DETERMINE THAT THIS EVENT HAS AN EARTH-DIRECTED COMPONENT. PROBABILITY OF MAGNETIC STORM ~5%. OTHER DAYS THE PERIOD THE UNSETTLED AND QUITE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE ESTABLISHED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru