Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 02 - 09.10 2016, Forecast on 10 - 17.10.2016, Carrington Rotation (26,89.08; 23,15.09.2016) Earth above the ecliptic + 6.5 deg. (S20-N30 geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY REMAINED AT AN AVERAGE LEVEL. THE ES- TIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W=028+9/-9 (Wn=045+15/-15). ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN 2- 3 QUITE SUNSPOT GROUP, ONE WAS MIDDLE SIZE WERE CONSTANTLY OBSER- VED ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK. NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE LOW AND THE AVERAGE LEVELS. THE ES- TIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=020+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. THERE WERE FIVE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA > 9 CMEs, ONE WAS OF "HA- LO" TYPE, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 02.10 >1515 >0551 S18E33L200 8 03.10 >1514 >0622 N21E56L162 9 04.10 <0550 <0557 S03E77L160 6 12599 07.10 >1527 <0547 S01W14L 7 08.10 1500 1700 N38E40L116 CME/9/0048/~150km/s ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH - S23L203 S45L163 Ps S25L205 >8200 8.10 >6 SDO, SOHO... CH - N10L108 N00L105 S05L114 S02L116 14.10 4 G1 SDO, SOHO... Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 25.09/17 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. 6-8.10 SIGN SECTOR REPEATEDLY CHANGED. THE FOLLOWING SEC- TOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 12.10. OCTOBER 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 OCTOBER Wus 032 033 038 055 050 062 058 F10.7 088 093 099 102 104 104 105 èbcg B1.7 ÷1.6 B1.8 B1.9 B1.9 B2.2 B1.9 GOES Sp 320 480 540 560 570 600 630 msh N 1 1 IMF + + + ~ ~ + + áóå Å>2 1.1å+9 1.3å+8 1.9å+8 3.0å+8 1.8E+8 4.9E+8 1.3E+8 GOES Ie>2 32138 16465 6832 15288 6774 17486 3515 pfu Ap 14 26 13 5 6 36 5 nô BOULDER Dst -32 -49 -38 -23 -27 -20 -19 nô KIOTO Amsc 14 20 12 9 9 36 9 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE- GINING 27/1525 UT AND OBSERVED 03 - 09.10. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 11.10. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDTION EXCEPT 4.10 WAS UNSETTLED AND QUIET. ACCOR- DING TO THE CENTRE IN BOULDER DATA THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM IS NOTED ON OCTOBER, 4 (G1, Ams= 31, dur.=15 h). ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA IT WAS DAY WITH ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WITH THREE SHORT-TERM SUB- STORMS (G0). THIS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE IS BOUND TO THE SLIDING IMPACT ON EARTH's ENVIRONMENT OF DISTURBATION FROM EJECTION BIG (36 deg.) SOLAR FILAMENT 1.10. NEXT WEEK THE PERIOD THE UNSETTLED AND QUITE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER 14.10 DISTURBANCE FROM EJECTION OF FI- LAMENT 8.10 WILL APPROACH TO EARTH, AND, IN TOO TIME, THE EARTH WILL PASS THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM TRANS-EQUA- TORIAL CORONAL HOLE "-" POLARITY. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM THIS DAY ~ 10%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru