Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 10 - 16.10 2016, Forecast on 17 - 24.10.2016, Carrington Rotation (2182, 2183 (23,15.09; 20,44.10.2016)) Earth above the ecliptic +(6.2 - 5,7) deg. (S25-N30 geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY REMAINED AT AN AVERAGE LEVEL, BUT 16. 10 WAS AT THE LOW. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYS- TEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W=024+14/-9 (Wn=038+24/-19). ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN 4 - 2 QUITE SUNSPOT GROUP. NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE AVERAGE AND LOW LEVELS. THE ESTIMA- TED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W =020+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL AT 12 - 14.10. THERE WERE THREE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA > 13 CMEs. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 14.10 2149 2255 N10E40L030 10 12602 15.10 1859 1959 N18W42L103 7 12600 16.10 0730 N10E05L049 ? ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH - N10L108 N00L105 S05L114 S02L116 14.10 4 G1 SDO, SOHO... CH - N08L126 S10L110 S11L108 S00L191 17.10 1 SDO, SOHO... CH - N08L084 N09L051 S42L177 S30L021 16.10 6 G1 SDO, SOHO... Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 14.09/1530 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. 10 -13.10 SIGN SECTOR WAS "+". THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 22.10. OCTOBER 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 OCTOBER Wus 064 056 040 041 038 035 025 F10.7 102 099 098 095 093 085 081 èbcg B1.8 ÷2.0 B1.8 B2.2 B2.2 B1.6 B1.4 GOES Sp 440 400 300 270 260 190 130 msh N 1 1 IMF +/- - - -/+ +/- - - áóå Å>2 5.8å+7 2.0å+7 3.9å+7 5.6å+5 6.3E+7 1.3E+8 1.5E+8 GOES Ie>2 4646 600 767 610 1931 4117 4699 pfu Ap 12 3 3 33 23 11 19 nô BOULDER Dst -20 -13 -10 -105 -95 -25 -19 nô KIOTO Amsc 16 4 7 41 21 11 21 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE- GINING 14.10/0120 UT AND OBSERVED 14 - 16.10. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 17 - 19.10. THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams = 52, dur. = 24 h.) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA AND (G2, Ams=54, ÄÌÉÔ.=27 h.) ACCORDING TO TO THE CENT- RE IN BOULDER DATA HAS RECORDED AT 12 - 14.10. THIS GEOMAGNETIC DIS- TURBANCE IS BOUND TO THE IMPACT ON EARTH's ENVIRONMENT OF DISTURBA- TION FROM EJECTION SOLAR FILAMENT 8.10. THE GEOMAGNETIC STORM BEGI- NING AT 12.09/2214 UT (SI). 16.10 AT THE END OF THE DAYS 6 HOUR SUB- STORM (G1) ARE NOTED. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WERE THE UNSETTLED AND QUITE. NEXT WEEK THE PERIOD THE UNSETTLED AND QUITE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER 16-17.10 THE EARTH WILL PASS THE HIGH -SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE "-" POLARITY. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM THIS DAY ~ 15%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru