Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 24 - 30.10 2016, Forecast on 31.10 - 6.11.2016, Carrington Rotation (2183 (20,44.10.2016) Earth above the ecliptic +(5.1 - 4.6) deg. (S25-N35 geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY REMAINED AT THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS, BUT 28.10 THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W = 006+4/-6 (Wn= 010+6/-10). ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN 1 - 0 QUITE SUNSPOT GROUP. NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=020+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. THERE WERE FIVE SOLAR FILA- MENT EJECTIONS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA > 25 CMEs. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 24.10 <0956 2254 S35W39L 12 24.10 >A1426 >1025 N28E49L256 8 24.10 2047 2055 EPL 0.22 24.10 2253 2351 S28E50L258 5 30.10 ~0800 S30E15L218 ? ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH + òn N50L>232 N00L319 N45L343 292900 25.10 G1 SDO, SOHO.. CH + N17L271 S16L256 S25L269 N05L313 32200 27.10 7 G1 SDO, SOHO.. Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 22.09/19 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 6.11. OCTOBER 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 OCTOBER Wus 013 017 015 012 000 016 012 F10.7 075 078 078 079 079 079 076 èbcg A7.0 A7.6 A6.9 A8.1 A8.3 A8.9 A8.4 GOES Sp 020 070 080 060 000 010 010 ÍÄÐ N 1 IMF + + + + + + + áóå Å>2 1.3å+7 1.2å+7 6.2å+8 1.2E+9 1.4E+9 2.0E+8 3.3E+8 GOES Ie>2 974 650 26158 47726 46347 21657 10385 pfu Ap 18 63 41 31 18 25 19 Îô BOULDER Dst -31 -61 -56 -50 -41 -69 -45 Îô KéOTO Amsc 18 49 30 23 16 20 24 Îô éúíéòáî ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE- GINING 26.10/0150 UT AND OBSERVED 26 - 30.10. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 31.10 - 6.11. MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G3, Ams= 50, dur.= 60 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CEN- TER IN BOULDER DATA 24 -27.10 IS REGISTERED. ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA IT WAS SUPERPOSITION OF THREE MAGNETIC STORMS: MINOR (G0, Ams=23, dur. =18 h.) 24-25.10, MODERATE (G3, Ams=62, dur.=18 h.) 25-26.10 AND MINOR (G1, Ams=36, dur.=15 h.) 26.10, AND SUBSTORM (G1 - 9 h.) AT THE END OF THE DAY 27.10. PASSING OF HIGH-SPEED STREAMS OF THE SOLAR WIND BY THE EARTH FROM RECURRENT ENORMOUS POLAR AND TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLES "+" POLARITY AND DISTURBATION FROM EJECTA OF SOLAR FILAMENT 20.10 (CME) BECAME SOURCES OF THIS LONG-LIVED GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE. ON THIS SI- TUATION AND 28 -29.10 THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM IS REGISTERED (G0, Ams = 32, dur.=18 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA AND (G0, Ams=29, dur.= 15 h.) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA. 29-30.10 SEPARATE SUBSTORMS (G0, G1) CONTINUED AND THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED ACTIVE. NEXT WEEK IT IS MOST PROBABLE UNSETTLED AND QUITE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru