------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON OCTOBER 2016 HAS MADE Woct. = 30.0 33.6(n.) THAT GIVES FOR 87 MONTHS (2016, APRIL) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*ÁÐÒÅÌØ = 45.0; 47.8 - new W*ÍÁÒÔ = 30.4; 50.6 - new - On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of cal- culation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - VI 2020; THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2016, OCTOBER ACCORDING DATA OF 72 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 0m 6.. 56 11.. 64 16.. 32 21.. 28 26.. 29 31.. 13 2.. 15 7.. 59 12.. 41 17.. 25 22.. 28 27.. 25 3.. 36 8.. 63 13.. 41 18.. 29 23.. 15 28.. 36 4.. 40 9.. 69M 14.. 41 19.. 30 24.. 15 29.. 23 5.. 41 10.. 66 15.. 36 20.. 16 25.. 17 30.. 14 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON 2016, OCTOBER, AND SMOOTHES ON 2016, APRIL F10.7oct. = 86.1 F*10.7apr.= 95.3 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2016, OCTOBER, AND SMOOTHES ON 2016, APRIL Ap oct. = 15.33 Ap*apr.= 11.8 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 31.10 - 06.11 2016, Forecast on 07 - 13.11.2016, Carrington Rotation (2183 (20,44.10.2016) Earth above the ecliptic +(4.45 - 3,83) deg. (S27-N33 geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY REMAINED AT THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS, BUT 02.11 THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W= 010+5/-10 (Wn= 016+8/-16). ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN 0 - 2 QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS. NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE LOW AND THE MIDDLE LEVELS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=020+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. THERE WERE SEVEN SOLAR FILA- MENT EJECTIONS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD AMONG WHICH A DSF 5.11 CAN TO BE GEOEFFICIENT. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA > 10 CMEs ONE WAS TYPE III (angular with 180 - 270 deg). ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 03.11 >1504 >0645 S25W22L203 12 03.11 >2240 >1540 N23E44L137 6 04.11 0110 0417 S28W24L191 12 04.11 ~0700 N20W15L182 ? 12605 04.11 >1006 >2248 N20E67L100 6 12606 04.11 >2219 >2120 N24E01L166 15 05.11* 0200 0500 N24W15L168 18 B1.1 CMEIII/0424 * Double ejection of solar filaments; the second filament was thrown out from vicinities of AR12606 (cm. http://www.spaceweather.com/ of 7.10) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH - S02L162 S15L152 S18L165 S16L167 07.11 SDO, SOHO.. CH + òn N49L145 131500 SDO, SOHO.. CH - S28L122 S40L097 Ps S38L137 143100 09.11 SDO, SOHO.. CH - N05L077 N04L078 S30L087 S05L113 11.11 7 G2 SDO, SOHO.. Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 22.09/19 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. 1-2.11 THE SECTOR SIGN REPEATEDLY CHANGED. THE FOLLOWING SEC- TOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 11.11. OCTOBER 31 01 02 03 04 05 06 NOVEMBER Wus 012 012 000 023 025 024 023 F10.7 077 077 076 076 077 077 076 èbcg A7.6 A7.2 A6.7 A6.6 A6.2 A6.4 A6.5 GOES Sp 030 010 000 020 030 020 020 msh N 1 1 IMF + +/- -/+ + + + + áóå Å>2 9.2å+8 6.4å+8 2.0å+8 1.2E+8 5.9E+7 1.7E+8 1.3E+8 GOES Ie>2 21357 18601 10939 4359 1782 3752 3163 pfu Ap 11 10 14 20 5 2 4 nô BOULDER Dst -32 -37 -47 -25 nô KIOTO Amsc 11 11 21 17 8 4 5 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE- GINING 26.10/0150 UT AND OBSERVED 31.10 - 6.11. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams =27, dur.=15 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CEN- TER IN BOULDER DATA 2-3.11 IS REGISTERED. ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA IT WAS SUBSTORM (G1 - 9 h.) AT THE END OF THE DAY NOVEMBER, 27 IN OT- HER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUITE. NEXT WEEK IT IS MOST PROBABLE UNSETTLED AND QUITE GEOMAGNETIC CONDI- TION. HOWEVER STRENGTHENING DISTURBACE OF GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS POSSIBLE ON NOVEMBER 8 BECAUSE OF ARRIVAL TO THE EARTH OF ICME FROM DOUBLE DSF AT 5.11. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM LOCK OF 60%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru