Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 07 - 13.11 2016, Forecast on 14 - 21.11.2016, Carrington Rotation 2183, 2184 (20,44.10; 16,74.11.2016) Earth above the ecliptic +(3.72 - 3,05) deg. (S26-N32 is geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY CHANGED AT THE VERY LOW TO MIDDLE LEVELS, BUT 08.11 THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W= 014+17/-14 (Wn = 023+26/-23). ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN 0 - 3 QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS. NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE LOW AND THE MIDDLE LEVELS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=020+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. THERE WERE THREE SOLAR FILA- MENT EJECTIONS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA >11 CMEs. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 08.11 >1422 >0654 S38E31L084 9 08.11 >1422 >0654 N13E48L068 10 10.10 >2332 >1434 N28E00L089 8 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH - S02L162 S15L152 S18L165 S16L167 07.11 SDO, SOHO.. CH - S28L122 S40L097 Ps S38L137 143100 09.11 SDO, SOHO.. CH - N05L077 N04L078 S30L087 S05L113 12.11 7 G2 SDO, SOHO.. CH + N02L020 S18L000 S20L003 S05L020 18.11 4 SDO, SOHO.. Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 7.09/19 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. 8-10.11 THE SECTOR SIGN REPEATEDLY CHANGED. THE FOLLOWING SEC- TOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 19.11. NOVEMBER 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 NOVEMBER Wus 024 000 012 013 026 051 038 F10.7 077 077 080 080 078 078 078 èbcg A6.7 A7.1 A9.8 B1.2 A8.2 A8.6 A8.2 GOES Sp 020 000 010 050 120 190 040 msh N 1 1 2 IMF +/- - ~ ~ - - - áóå Å>2 5.0å+7 4.8å+7 8.4å+6 5.6E+6 1.4E+5 2.8E+6 3.1E+8 GOES Ie>2 1317 2098 552 1032 154 10253 pfu Ap 4 3 6 14 11 20 22 nô BOULDER Dst -58 -49 -23 -23 nô KIOTO Amsc 4 6 10 19 10 17 24 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE- GINING 26.10/0150 UT AND OBSERVED 7 - 8.11. THE SECOND, SHORT-TERM INCREASE IS NOTED BY 10.11. NEW INCREASE BEGAN WITH 13.11/0950 UT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 14 - 20.11. MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams = 32, dur.=12 h.) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA 10-11.11 IS REGISTERED. ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA IT WAS SUBSTORM (G1-9 h.) AT THE END OF THE DAY NOVEMBER, 11. BESIDES SEPARATE SUBSTORMS HAVE BEEN NOTED AT 12.11. 13.11 BY DATA IZMIRAN IS REGISTERED THE NEXT MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams = 32, dur.= 12 h.), BUT ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA IT WERE TWO SUBSTORMS (G0 -9 AND 6 h.). THE SOURCE OF THESE GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBATIONS FROM EJEC- TION OF SOLAR FILAMENTS 8.11 (CME) AND THE PASSING OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM BY THE EARTH FROM TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE HAS BECOME POS- SIBLE. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUI- TE. NEXT WEEK IT IS MOST PROBABLE UNSETTLED AND QUITE GEOMAGNETIC CONDI- TION. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru