Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 14 - 21.11 2016, Forecast on 22 - 29.11.2016, Carrington Rotation 2183, 2184 (20,44.10; 16,74.11.2016) Earth above the ecliptic +(2.93 - 3,05) deg. (S28-N30 is geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY REMAINED AT A LOW LEVEL. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN- TERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W=014+3/-7 (Wn= 022+6/-15) -23). ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN 1 - 2 QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS. NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE LOW AND THE MIDDLE LEVELS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=020+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. THERE WERE 11 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STE- REO CORONOGRAPHS DATA >8 CMEs. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 14.11 1330 N16W09L045 8 14.11 >1010 >2321 N12W22L058 15 15.11 1421 1645 N18E12L005 18 16.11 >0959 >2222 S50E06L004 11 16.11 1405 2025 S55E18L352 21 18.11 >1006 >2210 S08E69L274 10 19.11 >1005 >2224 S16E63L267 11 19.11 >1305 >0749 S11W28L358 8 19.11 1941 2105 S19E47L283 7 19.11 >2335 >1417 S17W34L004 11 20.11 0753 0820 N14W66L022 5 12610 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH + N02L020 S18L000 S20L003 S05L020 18.11 4 SDO, SOHO.. CH + N08L311 S05L282 S22L301 N05L314 24.11 8 SDO, SOHO.. CH + Pn N40L281 SDO, SOHO.. CH + N58L284 N45L254 N20L306 N35L326 88700 23.11 SDO, SOHO.. CH - N65L336 N50L296 N45L311 N60L338 22.11 SDO, SOHO.. The last three perhaps make one polar; Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 20.11/<10 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 4.11. NOVEMBER 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 NOVEMBER Wus 026 029 018 027 028 022 011 F10.7 077 077 081 079 078 077 076 èbcg A7.0 A7.9 A7.9 A7.3 A6.8 A6.8 A6.6 GOES Sp 030 030 040 060 030 020 010 msh N 1 IMF - - - - - - -/+ áóå Å>2 5.0å+8 7.1å+8 6.2å+8 2.6E+8 2.3E+8 2.0E+8 8.6E+7 GOES Ie>2 16060 19442 16166 6414 5803 6652 2716 pfu Ap 13 7 4 3 3 2 3 nô BOULDER Dst nô KéOTO Amsc 11 10 7 4 4 3 5 nô éúíéòáî ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE- GINING 13.11/0950 UT AND OBSERVED 13 - 20.11. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 23 - 29.11. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUITE. FROM 23.11 THE PERIOD RECURRENT (5 SOLAR ROTATION) PASSINGS OF HIGH -SPEED STREAMS OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM EXTENSIVE FAMILY OF NORTHERN POLAR CORONAL HOLES (NOT LESS THAN 3) "+" POLARITY BY THE EARTH. NEXT WEEK ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS MOST PROBABLE. MAGNETIC STORMS ARE MOST PROBABLE 23 - 26 AND 29 - 30.11. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru