------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON NOVEMBER 2016 HAS MADE Wnov. = 12.8 21.4(n.) THAT GIVES FOR 88 MONTHS (2016, MAY) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*may = 26.9; 44.9 - new system W*apr. = 28.7; 47.8 - new system - On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of cal- culation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - VI 2020; THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2016, NOVEMBER ACCORDING DATA OF 73 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 12 6.. 22 11.. 26 16.. 28 21.. 0m 26.. 24 2.. 0m 7.. 11 12.. 12 17.. 29 22.. 0m 27.. 30 3.. 28 8.. 0m 13.. 37 18.. 28 23.. 11 28.. 42 4.. 25 9.. 13 14.. 31 19.. 23 24.. 12 29.. 46 5.. 24 10.. 24 15.. 27 20.. 12 25.. 13 30.. 52M THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON 2016, OCTOBER, AND SMOOTHES ON 2016, MAY F10.7nov. = 78.6 F*10.7may.= 93.2 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2016, NOVEMBER, AND SMOOTHES ON 2016, MAY Ap nov. = 8.33 Ap*may.= 11.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 27.11 - 4.12 2016, Forecast on 5 - 12.12.2016, Carrington Rotation 2184 (16,74.11.2016) Earth above the ecliptic +(1.35 - 0,58) deg. (S29-N30 is geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS AT A MIDDLE LEVEL. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN- TERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W = 030+15/-11 (Wn= 48+24/ -18). ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN 2 - 4 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP. NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE MIDDLE LEVEL. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIO- NAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=020+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STE- REO CORONOGRAPHS DATA >10 CMEs. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 29.11 1719 1723 1736 S07E55L132 M1.0/SN 2.0E-03 12615 29.11 2329 2338 >2340 S08E52L132 M1.2/SF 3.9E-03 12615 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH + S12L260 S15L245 S30L268 S25L275 27.11 1 SDO, SOHO.. CH - N25L048 N23L048 N10L078 N15L083 10.12 2 1 SDO, SOHO.. CH - N10L083 N08L081 S15L093 S12L103 09.12 8 1 SDO, SOHO.. CH - S15L098 S30L073 S55L083 S20L123 08.12 8 1 SDO, SOHO.. Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 20.11/07 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 6.11. NOVEMBER 27 28 29 30 01 02 03 04 DECEMBER Wus 031 044 043 075 049 059 062 037 F10.7 083 085 086 084 085 084 085 082 èbcg A9.4 ÷1.3 ÷1.6 ÷1.1 ÷1.0 ÷1.0 ÷1.1 B1.2 GOES Sp 200 230 260 230 260 230 230 190 msh N 1 1 1 1 IMF + + + + + + + + ACE Å>2 9.7å+8 1.1å+9 8.7å+7 8.6E+8 6.7E+7 4.5å+8 3.0å+8 2.4E+8 GOES Ie>2 25215 41607 18834 22208 16571 9967 6638 6344 pfu Ap 11 9 5 3 2 4 2 2 nô BOULDER Dst nô KéOTO Amsc 13 10 7 3 3 6 3 3 nô éúíéòáî NOVEMBER 21 22 23 24 25 26 NOVEMBER Wus 000 011 011 012 012 013 F10.7 075 077 078 079 081 081 èbcg A7.1 A9.2 A8.7 A9.8 A9.1 á9.3 GOES Sp 000 120 120 180 230 160 ÍÄÐ N 1 IMF + + + + + + áóå Å>2 3.8å+7 4.4å+6 8.6å+6 9.5E+6 2.7E+8 GOES Ie>2 1664 567 330 541 5557 25245 pfu Ap 7 11 9 26 39 11 Îô BOULDER Dst -21 -34 -39 -24 Îô KIOTO Amsc 7 18 13 29 27 12 Îô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE- GINING 25.11/0955 UT AND OBSERVED 25.11 - 04.12. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 5 - 12.12. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUITE. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WIIL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND QUITE TO 8.12, WHEN THE EARTH WILL ENTER IN THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF SOLAR WIND FROM CO- RONAL HOLES OF OF THE FAMILLY SOUTH POLAR CH. RECURRENT GEOMAQGNETIC STORM ARE POSSIBILITY IN THE PERIOD 8 - 11 DECEMBER. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru