Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 05 - 11.12 2016, Forecast on 12 - 19.12.2016, Carrington Rotation 2184, 2185 (16,74.11; 14,05.12.2016) Earth above the ecliptic (+0.34,- 0,4) deg. (S30-N30 is geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS CHANGED FROM A MIDDLE TO VERY LOW LEVELS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W=010+12/-10 (Wn=16+20/-16). ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN 2-0 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP. NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE MIDDLE LEVEL. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIO- NAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=020+10/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL. THERE WERE THREE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STE- REO CORONOGRAPHS DATA >11 CMEs. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 05.12 <1400 NE CME/1400 07.12 0901 1021 N12E57L036 23 08.12 <1200 CME_pH/1200 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH - N25L048 N23L048 N10L078 N15L083 18600 10.12 2 1 SDO, SOHO.. CH - N10L083 N08L081 S15L093 S12L103 23420 09.12 8 1 SDO, SOHO.. CH - S15L098 S30L073 S55L083 S20L123 08.12 8 1 SDO, SOHO.. óH + N10L019 S03L018 S05L022 N03L032 15.12 4 SDO, SOHO.. Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 7.12/1841 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. 5 AND 6.12 THE SIGN OF SECTOR IS CHANGE. THE FOLLOWING SEC- TOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 17.11. DECEMBER 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 DECEMBER Wus 037 024 018 014 012 000 013 F10.7 083 080 077 075 073 072 071 èbcg ÷1.1 ÷1.0 á9.1 á8.7 á8.0 á8.0 á6.3 GOES Sp 220 170 170 060 060 000 010 msh N 1 IMF ~ ~ +/- - - - - áóå Å>2 7.3å+7 2.6å+7 3.2E+6 7.4E+7 2.8å+8 7.2å+8 GOES Ie>2 3396 3472 1250 108 4227 10713 24002 pfu Ap 4 7 11 22 26 17 15 nô BOULDER Dst -19 -33 -20 -14 nô KIOTO Amsc 5 8 10 25 25 16 16 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE- GINING 25.11/0955 UT AND OBSERVED 25.11-07.12. NEW INCREASE OF FLUX WAS BEGINING 9/1150 UT AND OBSERVED 9 - 11.12. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 5 - 12.12. WITH 8.12 STARTED THE INFLUENCE OF FAMILY-RELATED CORONAL HOLES SUB- OLAR CH OF SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE FIRST MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Amax=38, dur.=12 h.) ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA AND (G0, Amax= 27, dur.= 12 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER FIXED AT THE END OF THE DAY 8.12. THE SECOND MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Amax= 38, dur.= 12 h.) ACCORDING IZMIRAN AND THE CENTER IN BOULDER WATCH 9-10.12. IN THESE DAYS MARKED TWO 6-h. SUBSTORMS. IN THE REMAINING DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WAS UNSETTLED AND QUITE. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WIIL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND QUITE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru