Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 12 - 18.12 2016, Forecast on 19 - 26.12.2016, Carrington Rotation 2184, 2185 (16,74.11; 14,05.12.2016) Earth above the ecliptic (-0.5,- 1,3) deg. (S31-N29 is geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS CHANGED FROM A LOW TO VERY LOW LEVELS, AND 16 - 17.12 WERE SPOTLESS DAYS (28 DAYS IN CURRENT YEAR). THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W= 007+8/-7 (Wn=11+13/-11). ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN 2-0 SMALL AND QUITE SUNSPOT GROUP. NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVEL. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=020+10/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. THERE WERE TWO SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA >16 CMEs, ONE WAS TYPE II (angular width 90-180 deg.). ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 15.12 1913 2029 N28W25L012 10 CME/2048 17.12 >1028 >2258 N31W58L019 8 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. óH + N10L019 S03L018 S05L022 N03L032 3700 15.12 4 SDO, SOHO.. CH + N38L346 N30L334 N15L344 N20L350 9500 18.12 2 1 SDO, SOHO.. CH + N45L329 N30L314 N15L329 N30L332 16300 20.12 8 1 SDO, SOHO.. CH + N60L339 N65L334 N30L279 N55L294 14100 19.12 8 1 SDO, SOHO.. óH + N12L295 S05L272 S20L292 S05L307 35600 21.12 5 1 SDO, SOHO.. óH + S10L254 S20L239 S27L266 S25L271 24.12 4 SDO, SOHO.. Last 5 CH - the family of North pole polar cjrjnal hole; Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 16.12/0630 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 3.01. DECEMBER 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 DECEMBER Wus 013 014 025 012 000 000 013 F10.7 071 071 072 073 073 072 072 èbcg á5.7 á5.5 á5.4 á5.9 á6.7 á5.6 á5.2 GOES Sp 010 070 080 010 000 000 020 msh N 1 1 IMF - - - - -/+ + + áóå Å>2 5.4å+8 4.4å+8 5.0E+8 4.7E+8 4.0E+8 2.8å+8 9.0å+6 GOES Ie>2 17711 9650 10187 7734 6986 7553 1565 pfu Ap 7 3 3 3 1 1 9 nô BOULDER Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 4 4 3 2 2 3 7 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE- GINING 9/1150 UT AND OBSERVED 9 - 18.12. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 22 - 26.12. IN THE NEXT PERIOD GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WAS UNSETTLED AND QUITE. WITH 19.12 STARTED THE INFLUENCE OF FAMILY-RELATED CORONAL HOLES SUB- POLAR CH OF NOTHERN HEMISPHERE. 19-23.12 WILL REMAIN ACTIVE GEOMAGNE- TIC CONDITION AND MINOR MAGNETIC STORMS ARE POSSIBILE. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WIIL UNSETTLED AND QUITE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru