Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 12 - 18.12 2016, Forecast on 19 - 26.12.2016, Carrington Rotation 2184, 2185 (16,74.11; 14,05.12.2016) Earth above the ecliptic (-1.4,- 2,1) deg. (S31-N29 is geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS CHANGED FROM A LOW TO VERY LOW LEVELS, AND 16 - 17.12 WERE SPOTLESS DAYS (28 DAYS IN CURRENT YEAR). THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W = 5+10/-5 (Wn = 9+15/-9). ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN 1-0 SMALL AND QUITE SUNSPOT GROUP. NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE VERY LOW AND LOW LEVEL END TO END OF WEEK, MIDDLE LEVEL SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=020+10/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STE- REO CORONOGRAPHS DATA >16 CMEs, ONE WAS TYPE II (angular width > 90 deg.). ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH + N45L329 N30L314 N15L329 N30L332 16300 20.12 8 1 SDO, SOHO.. CH + N60L339 N65L334 N30L279 N55L294 14100 19.12 8 1 SDO, SOHO.. óH + N12L295 S05L272 S20L292 S05L307 35600 21.12 5 1 SDO, SOHO.. óH + S10L254 S20L239 S27L266 S25L271 27400 24.12 4 SDO, SOHO.. óH + N10L161 S10L155 S14L161 S05L182 31.12 3 SDO, SOHO.. FIRSN 4 CH - the family of North pole polar cjrjnal hole; Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 16.12/0630 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 3.01. DECEMBER 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 DECEMBER Wus 012 025 015 012 000 000 000 F10.7 073 075 075 075 074 073 073 èbcg á5.2 á5.4 á6.7 á6.2 á6.3 á6.3 á5.7 GOES Sp 010 010 050 010 000 000 000 msh N 1 IMF + + + + + + + áóå Å>2 1.3å+7 6.5å+6 9.5E+6 1.8E+8 5.9E+8 8.9å+8 7.0å+8 GOES Ie>2 528 345 565 8903 19653 29524 25725 pfu Ap 5 6 26 24 24 13 23 nô BOULDER Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 4 7 30 25 25 13 20 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE- GINING 22/1215 UT AND OBSERVED 22 - 25.12. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 26.12 - 03.01. GROWTH GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY ASSOSHIATED WITH SUBPOLAR CORONAL HOLE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE STARTED WITH 20.12 BUT FIRST MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams=37, dur.= 21 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDERE AND MODERATE (G2, Ams=47, dur.=18 h.) ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA MARKED 21-22.12. SECOND MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams= 24, dur.= 30 h.) AC- CORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDERE MARKED OF THE DAY END 22 - 23.12, WHEREAS ACCORDING IZMIRAN THIS MAGNETIC STORM TOOK ONLY SECOND HALF 23.12 (G1, Ams=38, dur.=12 h.). NEXT MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams= 28, dur.=27 h.) REGISTERED 25-26.12 ACCORDING DATA OF THE CENTER IN BOULDERE AND (G1, Ams= 25, dur.= 15 h.) ACCORDING IZMIRAN. 19-20.12 GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUITE. TILL 31.12 GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE QUITE, AFTER POSSIBLE GROWTH ACTIVITY, AS THE EARTH WILL ENTER TO THE HIGH SPEED STREAM OF SOLAR WIND OF TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE JF POSITIVE POLARI- TY. PROBABILITY OF MAGNETIC STORM NO MORE THEN 20%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru