Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 02 - 08.01 2016, Forecast on 09 - 16.01.2016, Carrington Rotation 2185, 2186 (14,05.12.2016; 10,39.01.2017) Earth above the ecliptic (-3.1,- 3,8) deg. (S33-N27 is geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS REMAINED ON A VERY LOW LEVEL AND 2, 4-8.01 WERE SPOTLESS DAYS (7 DAYS IN CURRENT YEAR). THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W=1+6/-1 (Wn=2+9/-2). ON THE VISIBLE DISC OF THE SUN ONLY 1 DAY 1 SMALL AND QUITE SUNSPOT GROUP WAS OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE VERY LOW LEVEL. THE ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 010+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. THERE WERE 4 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STE- REO CORONOGRAPHS DATA >4 CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 02.01 1147 1242 N19W43L153 9 02.01 >1437 >0748 N20W41L151 12 03.01 0116 0546 N16W45L142 8 07.01 >2110 >1435 N41E31L013 7 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. óH - S05L131 S15L123 S17L130 S05L138 03.01 2 SDO, SOHO.. óH - N22L108 N15L083 S01L103 N10L118 22500 05.12 9 SDO, SOHO.. óH - S05L103 S08L090 S15L103 S10L105 06.12 9 SDO, SOHO.. óH - S18L103 S45L063 S60L069 S30L125 234400 04.12 9 SDO, SOHO.. óH + N05L030 N00L025 S10L028 S00L000 11.12 6 SDO, SOHO.. 2 - 4 CH - the family of South pole polar coronal hole; Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ AFTER 3.01/06 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 12.01. JANUARY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 JANUARY Wus 000 011 000 000 000 000 000 F10.7 073 073 072 073 072 072 072 èbcg á6.4 á5.7 á5.4 á5.5 á5.6 á5.8 á5.5 GOES Sp 000 000 010 000 010 000 000 msh N 1 IMF + +/- - - - - - áóå Å>2 2.0å+7 4.9å+6 5.9E+6 3.1E+7 2.4E+8 6.6å+8 9.9å+8 GOES Ie>2 6083 179 274 1823 8106 22509 25537 pfu Ap 7 13 12 18 18 19 17 nô BOULDER Dst -25 -21 -16 -26 -23 --17 -26 nô KIOTO Amsc 5 10 13 22 13 25 15 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE- GINING 5/1520 UT AND OBSERVED 6 - 8.01. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 9 - 13.01. MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams=7, dur.=15 h.) BY DATA OF THE CENTER IN BOULDER IS OBSERVED 5 6.01, BUT ACCORDING TO THE IZMIRAN DATA IT WAS 9 h. SUBSTORM (G1). ON JANUARY 07 ACCORDING TO THE IZMIRAN DATA WAS REGISTERED 9 h. INTENSIVE (G0) SUBSTORM, ACCORDING TO THE CEN- TER IN BOULDER IT WAS 6-h. SUBSTORM (G0) INTENSITY. 08.01 AT END OF THE DAY NEXT SUBSTORM IS REGISTERED. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CON- DITIONS WERE UNSETTLED. ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING 11 - 12.01, WHEN THE EARTH BE HELD HIGH SOLAR WIND STREAM FROM TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE OF POSITIVE POLARITY. LOW PROBABILITY OF MAGNETIC STORM - NO MORE THAN 5%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru