Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 09 - 15.01 2016, Forecast on 16 - 23.01.2016, Carrington Rotation 2185, 2186 (14,05.12.2016; 10,39.01.2017) Earth above the ecliptic (-3.9, - 4,6) deg. (S34-N26 is geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS CHANGED FROM A VERY LOW TO THE LOW LEVELS AND 9-11.01 WERE SPOTLESS DAYS - 2017 total: 10 days (77%). THE ESTIMA- TED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W =12+3/-12 (Wn =20+4/ -20). ON THE VISIBLE DISC OF THE SUN 0-2 SMALL AND QUITE SUNSPOT GROUP WAS OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE LOW LEVEL. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEK- LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 020+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL AT 112.01 AND AT THE LOW - IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WERE ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA > 7 CMEs ONE - OF II-TYPE (angular width 90-180 deg.) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 12.01 <1554 >1641 N05E89L254 ? C3.8 12625 CME/1624/II ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT A VERY LOW AND LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. óH + N05L030 N00L025 S10L028 S00L000 12700 11.01 G1 SDO, SOHO.. óH + N45L334 N28L317 N18L339 N18L333 3800 14.01 >7 GO SDO, SOHO.. óH + N50L309 N35L284 N28L311 N30L317 4800 18.01 >7 G1 SDO, SOHO.. óH + N40L284 N10L282 N07L289 N05L297 18.01 >7 G1 SDO, SOHO.. óH + S00L284 S25L241 S29L256 S10L294 48900 19.01 G1 SDO, SOHO.. 4 last CH - the family of South pole polar coronal hole; Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A - active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 12.01/06 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 30.01. JANUARY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 JANUARY Wus 000 000 000 011 024 025 023 F10.7 071 073 075 076 075 077 078 èbcg á5.5 á6.2 á8.3 á8.5 á6.5 á6.4 á6.9 GOES Sp 000 000 000 030 070 190 180 msh N 1 1 IMF - ~ - -/+ ~ ~ + áóå Å>2 1.4å+9 9.4å+8 3.0E+8 3.2E+8 2.1E+8 1.5å+8 1.2å+8 GOES Ie>2 42125 36708 8687 7626 7916 4185 3432 pfu Ap 14 9 6 4 4 4 5 nô BOULDER Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 14 10 9 5 4 4 5 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE- GINNING 5/1520 UT AND OBSERVED 6 - 13.01. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 18 - 23.01. ALL DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE UNSETTLED AND QUITE. ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING 17 - 21.01, WHEN THE EARTH BE HELD HIGH SOLAR WIND STREAM FROM FAMILY OF POLAR CORONAL HOLES OF POSITIVE POLARITY. PROBABILITY OF MAGNETIC STORM ABOUT 45%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru