Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 16 - 22.01 2016, Forecast on 23 - 30.01.2016, Carrington Rotation 2186 (10,39.01.2017) Earth above the ecliptic (-4.6, - 5,2) deg. (S35-N25 is geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS REMAINED A LOW LEVEL TO 19.01 AND THE MID- DLE - IN OTHER DAYS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W=25+15/-11 (Wn=39+25/-16). ON THE VISIBLE DISC OF THE SUN 2 - 4 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP WAS OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUM- BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 040+10/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL 20 - 21.01 AND AT THE VERY LOW IN OTHER DAYS. NO SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA > 10 CMEs. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT A LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. óH + N50L309 N35L284 N28L311 N30L317 4800 18.01 10 G1 SDO, SOHO.. óH + N40L284 N10L282 N07L289 N05L297 18.01 10 G1 SDO, SOHO.. óH + S00L284 S25L241 S29L256 S10L294 48900 19.01 10 G1 SDO, SOHO.. óH + N03L162 S12L157 S19L162 S08L192 27.01 4 G0 SDO, SOHO.. 3 first CH - the family of Nothern polar coronal hole; Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 12.01/06 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 30.01. JANUARY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 JANUARY Wus 024 026 025 026 061 067 061 F10.7 078 079 079 080 083 086 087 èbcg á6.9 á7.0 á7.0 á7.1 ÷1.0 ÷1.4 B1.3 GOES Sp 180 140 100 090 180 270 350 msh N 2 IMF + + + + + + + áóå Å>2 7.7å+8 4.5å+7 6.4E+6 2.4E+7 8.1E+7 7.6å+7 3.5å+7 GOES Ie>2 3085 2711 370 877 2979 2839 1154 pfu Ap 2 3 18 14 11 11 10 nô BOULDER Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 3 4 17 9 11 13 10 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BEGINNING 5/1520 UT AND OBSERVED 6 - 17.01. NEXT ENHANCEMENT ELECT- RON FLUXES IS BEGINNING AT 20.01/1320 UT AND OBSERVED 20 - 22.01. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 23 - 27.01. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED THE ENTIRE PERIOD, EX- CEPT THE SECOND HALF OF DAY 18.01 WHEN THE EARTH WAS INCLUDED INTO THE GEOEFFECTIVE PART OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FA- MILY OF THE NOTHERN SUBPOLAR CORONAL HOLE AND ON THE EARTH THE MI- NOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams= 27, dur.= 12 h.) BOTH ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN AND THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA WAS REGISTERED. GEOEFFECTIVE IMPACT ON THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS RENDERED BY ONLY THE INITIAL PART OF TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE. NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUITE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru