Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 23 - 29.01 2016, Forecast on 30.01 - 05.02.2016, Carrington Rotation 2186 (10,39.01.2017) Earth above the ecliptic (-5.3, - 5,8) deg. (S36-N24 is geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS REMAINED ON A MIDDLE LEVEL BUT AFTER 28. 01 - ON THE LOW. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W= 24+9/-10 (Wn =37+16/-14). ON THE VISIBLE DISC OF THE SUN 4- 2 SMALL QUITE SUNSPOT GROUP WAS OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RE- LATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=020+10/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL 28.01 ONLY AND AT THE VERY LOW IN OTHER DAYS. 2 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA >12 CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 23.01 >0000 >1435 S23W30L223 9 28.01 2148 N06W79L192 <10 C2.8 12627 CME/2136 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT A VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. óH + N03L162 S12L157 S19L162 S08L192 27.01 4 G0 SDO, SOHO.. óH - N10L117 S40L043 S60L127 N05L147 280900 31.01 10 G1 SDO, SOHO.. Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 12.01/06 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 30.01. JANUARY 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 JANUARY Wus 053 055 046 031 033 028 024 F10.7 084 082 085 083 080 079 077 èbcg B1.0 B1.0 B1.4 B1.1 A9.1 A8.5 A8.2 GOES Sp 320 320 410 270 270 240 230 msh N 1 IMF + + + + + + + áóå Å>2 5.3å+7 5.2å+7 3.2E+7 1.2E+7 3.5E+7 8.8å+7 8.0å+7 GOES Ie>2 1184 1001 735 1282 1551 2495 2376 pfu Ap 4 4 4 13 19 9 8 nô BOULDER Dst -19 -22 nô KIOTO Amsc 5 4 4 18 19 7 6 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE- GINING 20.01/1320 UT AND OBSERVED 20 -23.01. NEXT ENHANCEMENT ELECT- RON FLUXES IS BEGINING AT 26.01/1350 UT AND OBSERVED 26 - 29.01. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 30.01 - 05.02. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED TO THE SECOND HALF OF DAY 26.01 WHEN THE EARTH WAS INCLUDED INTO THE GEOEFFECTIVE PART OF THE SOLAR WIND HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR TRANS-EQUATORIAL CO- RONAL HOLE OF POSITIVE POLARITY THAT HAS CAUSED MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams = 35, dur. = 12 h.) ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA AND (G0, Ams= 24, dur. = 24 h.) ACCORDING tTO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA. GEOEFFECTIVE INPUTE ON THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS RENDERED BY ONLY the INITIAL PART CH. ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED 31.01- 1.02: THE EARTH WILL BE INCLUDED INTO THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM IN THE GULF OF THE SOUTH POLE CORONAL HOLE AND IN THE SAME TIME THERE WILL PASS CIR - A BORDER OF THE NEXT SECTOR. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM NOT LESS THAN 40%. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE UNSET- TLED AND QUIET. NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUITE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru Vitaly Ishkov