------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JANUARY 2017 HAS MADE Wjan. = 15.5 25.8(n.) THAT GIVES FOR 90 MONTHS (2016, JULY) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*july = 23.2; 38.6 - new system W*june = 25.0; 41.6 - new system - On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of cal- culation of the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - VI 2020; THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2017, JANUARY ACCORDING DATA OF 76 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 55 6.. 33 11.. 12 16.. 0m 21.. 30 26.. 0m 31.. 11 2.. 62í 7.. 19 12.. 12 17.. 13 22.. 16 27.. 16 3.. 52 8.. 14 13.. 14 18.. 29 23.. 0m 28.. 12 4.. 38 9.. 20 14.. 23 19.. 15 24.. 0m 29.. 11 5.. 35 10.. 0m 15.. 12 20.. 22 25.. 0m 30.. 11 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON 2017, JANUARY, AND SMOOTHES ON 2016, JULY F10.7 jan. = 77.3 F*10.7 july= THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2017, JANUARY, AND SMOOTHES ON 2016, JULY Ap jan. = 9.0 Ap*july = ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 30.12 - 04.02 2016, Forecast on 30.01 - 05.02.2016, Carrington Rotation 2186, 2187 (10,39.01; 6, 73.02.2017) Earth above the ecliptic (-5.8, - 6,2) deg. (S36-N24 is geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS REMAINED ON A MIDDLE LEVEL AND 01 AND 4. 02 - ON THE LOW. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W = 18+7/-5 (Wn = 28+12/-7). ON THE VISIBLE DISC OF THE SUN 3 - 1 SMALL QUITE SUNSPOT GROUP WAS OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RE- LATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=020+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STEREO CORO- NOGRAPHS DATA >12 CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 04.02 0653 0807 N12E59L337 6 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT A VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. óH - N10L117 S40L043 S60L127 N05L147 280900 31.01 10 G1 SDO, SOHO.. óH + N15L024 N05L015 S05L021 N058L033 11000 07.01 7 SDO, SOHO.. Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 30.01/11 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 9.02. JANUARY 30 31 01 02 03 04 FEBRUARY Wus 035 042 028 040 033 022 F10.7 077 076 076 075 075 074 èbcg á7.7 á7.4 á7.9 á7.7 A7.3 A8.0 GOES Sp 080 060 090 110 080 040 msh N 2 1 1 IMF +/- - - - - - áóå Å>2 5.5å+7 7.9å+6 3.0E+8 6.8E+8 6.8E+8 8.4å+8 GOES Ie>2 1773 656 15275 17975 20372 22414 pfu Ap 6 23 25 23 15 11 nô BOULDER Dst -19 -22 nô KIOTO Amsc 7 21 32 20 16 11 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE- GINNING 26.01/1350 UT AND OBSERVED 26 -30.01. NEXT ENHANCEMENT ELECT- RON FLUXES IS BEGINNING AT 01.02/1240 UT AND OBSERVED 1 - 4.01. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 5 - 14.02. MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams= 33, dur.=12 h.). ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA AND (G0, Ams= 32, dur.= 21 h.). ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOUL- DER DATA 31.01-01.02 ARE NOTED. The SECOND MMS HAS BEGUN IN 6 HOURS (G1, Ams= 32, dur.= 21 h.). ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA AND (G1, Ams= 32, dur.=12 h.). ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER THERE WAS 1 - 2. 02. 2- 3.02 SUBSTORMS LASTING 9-h. (1) And 6 h. (2) ARE NOTED. GEO- MAGNETIC DISTURBANCE HAVE TURNED OUT be CONSEQUENCE of PASSING BY THE EARTH HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE CORONAL HOLE FAMILY OF SOUTH PO- LE CH "-" POLARITY. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET 30.12 AND 04.02. NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUITE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru