------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JANUARY 2017 HAS MADE Wjan. = 15.5 25.8(n.) THAT GIVES FOR 90 MONTHS (2016, JULY) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*july = 23.2; 38.6 - new system W*june = 25.0; 41.6 - new system - On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of cal- culation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - VI 2020; THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2017, JANUARY ACCORDING DATA OF 76 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 55 6.. 33 11.. 12 16.. 0m 21.. 30 26.. 0m 31.. 11 2.. 62í 7.. 19 12.. 12 17.. 13 22.. 16 27.. 16 3.. 52 8.. 14 13.. 14 18.. 29 23.. 0m 28.. 12 4.. 38 9.. 20 14.. 23 19.. 15 24.. 0m 29.. 11 5.. 35 10.. 0m 15.. 12 20.. 22 25.. 0m 30.. 11 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON 2016, JANUARY, AND SMOOTHES ON 2016, JUNE F10.7 dec. = 77.3 F*10.7 july= 87.7 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2016, JANUARY, AND SMOOTHES ON 2016, JULY Ap dec. = 9.45 Ap*july = 11.2 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 05 - 12.02 2016, Forecast on 13 - 20.02.2016, Carrington Rotation 2186, 2187 (10,39.01; 6, 73.02.2017) Earth above the ecliptic (-6.2, - 6,8) deg. (S35-N25 is geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS REMAINED ON A LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W= 10+3/-10 (Wn= 16+5/-16). ON THE VISIBLE DISC OF THE SUN 2 - 1 SMALL QUITE SUNSPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RE- LATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=020+10/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STEREO CORO- NOGRAPHS DATA >9 CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 05.02 >1002 >2344 N47E49L320 13 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT A VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. óH + N15L024 N05L015 S05L021 N058L033 11000 07.01 7 SDO, SOHO.. óH - S00L295 S15L245 S30L275 S08L296 5700 15.02 2 G0 SDO, SOHO.. Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 30.01/11 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 14.02. FEBRUARY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 FEBRUARY Wus 022 015 011 000 015 018 018 018 F10.7 073 073 072 073 073 074 076 076 èbcg á7.3 á6.7 á6.3 á5.8 A6.4 A5.9 A6.2 A6.4 GOES Sp 020 010 010 000 070 110 110 090 msh N 1 1 IMF - - - - - - - - áóå Å>2 4.8å+8 5.3å+8 5.2E+8 7.1E+8 4.4E+8 2.1å+8 1.0å+8 1.6E+8 GOES Ie>2 20565 16600 14194 8550 13674 10414 2343 4590 pfu Ap 15 14 7 4 6 9 5 3 nô BOULDER Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 16 14 11 6 7 10 4 6 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE- GINING AT 01.02/1240 UT AND OBSERVED 1 - 12.02. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 12 - 15.02 é 17 - 20.02. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUIET. NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUITE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru