Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 13 - 19.02.2017, Forecast on 20 - 27.02.2017, Carrington Rotation 2187 (6,73.02.2017) Earth above the ecliptic (-6.7, -6,9) deg. (S33-N23 is geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS REMAINED ON A LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W = 11+3/-3 (Wn= 17+5/-5). ON THE VISIBLE DISC OF THE SUN 1 - 2 SMALL QUITE SUNSPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND MIDD- LE LEVELS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RE- LATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=020+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. FIVE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTI- ONS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA >5 CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 15.02 >1517 >0742 N08W09L260 6 17.02 0028 1630 *N07E37L187 6 17.02 >0901 >2306 S08W56L280 8 18.02 >1159 >0635 *N07E08L203 8 19.02 0511 0539 *N14E02L196 11 CME/0648 19.02 >1710 >1458 S56E13L185 7 * one and same system of filaments ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT A VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS BUT, ALSO FLARES OF MIDDLE CLASS IN NEW ACTIVE REGION LEAVING EAST LIMB ARE POSSIBLE. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. óH - S00L295 S15L245 S30L275 S08L296 5700 15.02 2 G0 SDO, SOHO.. óH + N10L170 S05L167 S25L183 N20L198 22.02 5 G1 SDO, SOHO.. Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 13.02/10 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH HAS EXPECTED TO PASS 27.02. FEBRUARY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 FEBRUARY Wus 016 015 023 023 014 013 023 F10.7 075 075 075 074 075 077 078 èbcg á6.3 á6.2 á5.9 á5.7 A7.6 ÷1.0 B1.4 GOES Sp 060 050 030 010 020 020 030 msh N 1 1 IMF -/+ + + + + + + áóå Å>2 1.2å+8 6.8å+7 3.9E+7 8.4E+6 3.8E+6 6.1å+6 2.0å+7 GOES Ie>2 4518 1877 1016 1005 215 242 778 pfu Ap 5 2 3 12 21 12 11 nô BOULDER Dst -24 -37 -27 -26 nô KIOTO Amsc 7 2 5 11 20 15 13 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE- GINING AT 01.02/1240 UT AND OBSERVED 1 - 16.02. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 20 - 22.02. THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams = 29, dur. = 12 h). ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA AND (G0, Ams = 25, dur.=15 h). ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA IS REGISTERED 17 - 18.02 IN RESPONSE TO PASSING BY THE EARTH OF THE SOLAR WIND HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM CORONAL HOLE "+" POLARITY ON THE SOUTHERN SOLAR HEMISPHERE. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAG- NETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUIET. NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUITE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru