Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                Highlights on 20 - 26.02.2017,
               Forecast on 27.02 - 06.03.2017,
            Carrington Rotation 2187 (6,73.02.2017)
           Earth above the ecliptic (-7.0, -7,1) deg. 
               (S35-N20 is geoeffectiveness zone)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS REMAINED ON A LOW LEVEL BUT 26.03- MID-
DLE. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE 
SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W
= 14+7/-4 (Wn= 22+12/-6). ON THE VISIBLE DISC OF THE SUN 1 - 3 SMALL 
QUITE SUNSPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. 

NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE MIDDLE AND LOW  
LEVELS. THE ESTIMATED,  MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELA-
TIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM  (old) FOR THE NEXT 
WEEK IS W=020+20/-10. 

 FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL ON 22-24.02 ONLY. FIVE SOLAR FI-
LAMENT EJECTIONS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SO-
HO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA > 5 CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES   to   tm   te   local.     Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV   CME
                                  X-ray/Ïp  J/m-2
DSF     to     te    ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ  l × ÇÒÁÄ.  Fl     Aï        CME/to
20.02  1630   1820   N40E90L095  EPL-0.26  B3.7
22.02 >0036  >1407   N05E21L133       7
23.02 >0032  >1439   N04E35L110      13
24.02  0020   0111   S14E18L114       7          12637
25.02      1807      S12W10L129      ~5
----------------------------------------------------------------------
NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT A VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS. 

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE   R G   Space Obser.
óH  +  N10L170 S05L167  S25L183 S20L198 49700 22.02  5 G1  SDO, SOHO..
óH  -  N16L119 N14L114  S01L114 N12L122       01.03  2 G0  SDO, SOHO..
óH  -  N02L104 N00L099  S50L074 S15L114       02.03    G2  SDO, SOHO..
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

FROM 13.02/10 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY  +/- THE EARTH HAS EXPECTED TO 
PASS 27.02.

FEBRUARY 20     21     22     23     24     25     26    FEBRUARY
Wus     025    019    017    018    027    025    035 
F10.7   081    083    083    083    082    080    079 
èbcg   B1.2   B1.3   B1.1   B1.1   A9.0   A8.4   á6.7      GOES
Sp      090    140    150    150    150    140    120   msh   
N        1                           1             1
IMF      +      +      +      +      +      +      +       áóå   
Å>2  3.4å+7 3.8å+7 9.4E+6 1.1E+7 1.5E+7 4.8å+7  4.8å+7     GOES
Ie>2   1049   1109    719    642    594   1287    956  pfu 
Ap       10     3      10     9      24     7      2   nô BOULDER 
Dst                   -27    -12    -31    -25    -13  nô KIOTO 
Amsc     12     3      8      15     20     6      2   nô IZMIRAN 
------------------------------------------------------------------
Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE-
GINING AT 25.02/1400 UT AND OBSERVED 25 - 26.02.   

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY 
HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 27.02 - 06.03.

 THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams= 32, dur.= 12 h.). ACCORDING TO 
IZMIRAN DATA AND (G1, Ams = 29, dur.=15 h). ACCORDING TO THE CENTER 
IN BOULDER DATA IS REGISTERED 23 - 24.02  IN RESPONSE TO ARRIVAL TO 
THE EARTH OF DISTURBANCE FROM DSF 19.02. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNE-
TIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

NEXT WEEK ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED 1-2.03 WHEN THE 
EARTH  WILL PASS THE SOLAR WIND HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM CORONAL HOLE 
FAMILI  "-"  POLARITY ON THE POLAR CH OF SOUTHERN SOLAR HEMISPHERE.  
IN OTHER DAYS  THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION  IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND 
QUIET.
 
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru