------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON FEBRUARY 2017 HAS MADE Wfeb. = 15.7 26.1(n.) THAT GIVES FOR 90 MONTHS (2016, JULY) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*aug. = 21.6; 36.0 - new system W*july = 23.2; 38.6 - new system - On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of cal- culation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - VI 2020; THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2017, FEBRUARY ACCORDING DATA OF 74 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 47 6.. 13 11.. 22 16.. 19 21.. 26 26.. 38 2.. 47 7.. 13 12.. 20 17.. 14 22.. 29 27.. 48 3.. 39 8.. 11m 13.. 19 18.. 13 23.. 24 28.. 59í 4.. 17 9.. 20 14.. 16 19.. 25 24.. 27 5.. 13 10.. 24 15.. 24 20.. 32 25.. 32 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON 2016, FEBRUARY, AND SMOOTHES ON 2016, AUGUST F10.7 feb. = 76.9 F*10.7 aug.= 85.5 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2016, FEBRUARY, AND SMOOTHES ON 2016, AUGUST Ap feb. = 9.2 Ap*aug. = 11.2 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 27.02 - 05.03.2017, Forecast on 06 - 13.02.2017, Carrington Rotation 2187 (6,73.02.2017) Earth above the ecliptic (-7.1, -7,2) deg. (S33-N23 is geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON A MIDDLE LEVEL TO 3.03 AND 4, 5.03 WERE 12 AND 13 SPOTLESS DAYS IN CURRENT YEAR. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W=11+22/-11 (Wn=18+35 /-18). ON THE VISIBLE DISC OF THE SUN 4-0 SMALL QUITE SUNSPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 020+10/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. TWO SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTI- ONS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA > 7 CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 27.02 1421 1534 S21W35L128 10 04.03 >1021 >2300 N17W49L076 7 12640 05.03 ~1200 N10E33L341 ? CME/1348 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT A VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. óH - N16L119 N14L114 S01L114 N12L122 269500 1.03 2 G0 SDO, SOHO.. óH - N02L104 N00L099 S50L074 S15L114 02.03 G2 SDO, SOHO.. CH + N10L027 N05L017 S05L032 N05L034 07.03 8 SDO, SOHO.. CH + N38L344 N30L334 N20L356 N25L006 10.03 1 SDO, SOHO.. 1 and 2 CH - from the family of polar CH South Pole; area of the first CH - united area of the whole family; Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 27.02/1517 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS EXPECTED TO PASS 12.03. FEBRUARY 27 28 01 02 03 04 05 MARCH Wus 040 039 055 052 036 000 011 F10.7 082 082 081 079 078 075 073 èbcg á7.8 á6.2 á6.5 á5.1 A4.7 á3.0 A1.7 GOES Sp 150 210 190 140 100 000 010 msh N 1 1 1 IMF +/- - - - - - - áóå Å>2 2.6å+7 1.8å+6 1.2E+6 5.8E+8 5.1E+8 7.1å+8 7.9å+8 GOES Ie>2 730 111 1429 22538 22830 22405 29715 pfu Ap 8 8 43 32 20 24 17 nô BOULDER Dst -52 -49 -54 -26 -27 nô KIOTO Amsc 9 9 33 34 18 21 20 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE- GINING AT 02.03/0440 UT AND OBSERVED 2 - 5.03. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 6 - 13.02. THE MIDDLE MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams= 41, dur.= 18 h.), MINOR (G1, Ams= 38, dur.=12 h.) AND TWO SUBSTORM (G1, dur.=9 h.) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA IS REGISTERED 1- 4.03. According to the CENTER IN BOLDERE IT WAS THE LONG MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams=37, dur.=57 h). And ONE 9-HOUR SUBSTORM (G1). IN THIS LONG GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBATION THE MAIN CONTRI- BUTION WAS MADE THE PASSING BY THE EARTH THE SOLAR WIND HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM THE CORONAL HOLE "-" POLARITY OF THE POLAR CORONAL HOLE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE AND, PERHAPS, DISTURBANS FROM FILAMENT EJECTION 25 And 27.02, SO 3 AND 4.03 INFLUENCE OF CORONAL HOLES WAS ALREADY IM- PROBABLE. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUIET. NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUITE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru