Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 27.02 - 05.03.2017, Forecast on 06 - 13.02.2017, Carrington Rotation 2187 (6,73.02.2017) Earth above the ecliptic (-7.2, -7,2) deg. (S35-N20 is geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON A VERY LOW LEVEL AND ALL DAYS WERE SPOTLESS DAYS (17- IN CURRENT YEAR). THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEK- LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W=0 (Wn=0). NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 020+10/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTI- ONS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA > 5 CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 10.03 >0012 >1445 S19W44L 3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH + N10L027 N05L017 S05L032 N05L034 07.03 8 SDO, SOHO.. CH + N38L344 N30L334 N20L356 N25L006 10.03 1 SDO, SOHO.. CH + N30L299 N28L289 N05L297 N28L304 14.03 1 G0 SDO, SOHO.. Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 27.02/1517 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS EXPECTED TO PASS 13.03. MARCH 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 MARCH Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 F10.7 072 072 071 071 071 070 070 èbcg á1.6 á1.1 á1.2 á3.1 A1.5 <á1.0 2 7.7å+8 1.1å+9 8.8E+8 8.7E+8 3.8E+8 5.0å+8 1.8å+8 GOES Ie>2 27935 31175 28636 28218 12580 14629 7626 pfu Ap 22 17 12 14 13 5 9 nô BOULDER Dst -33 -32 -27 -35 -30 -25 -26 nô KIOTO Amsc 18 19 19 16 11 10 9 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE- GINING AT 02.03/0440 UT AND OBSERVED 6 - 12.03. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 13 - 17.02. THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams = 35, dur. = 12 h.) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA, AND (G1, Ams= 31, dur.= 15 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOLDERE IT WAS REGISTERED AT MARCH, 6 - 7. THE SOURCE OF THIS GEO- MAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WAS THE PASSING BY THE EARTH THE SOLAR WIND HIGH -SPEED STREAM (CH HSS) FROM TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE "+" POLARI- TY. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS ACTIVE (8, 9.03) AND UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUITE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru