Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 13 - 19.03.2017, Forecast on 20 - 27.03.2017, Carrington Rotation 2188 (6,06.03.2017) Earth above the ecliptic (-7.2, -7,0) deg. (S35-N20 is geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON A VERY LOW LEVEL AND ALL DAYS WERE SPOTLESS DAYS (25 IN CURRENT YEAR). THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEK- LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W=0 (Wn=0). NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 020+10/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTI- ONS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA > 5 CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 15.03 >0925 >2308 N16W52L294 5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT A VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH + N30L299 N28L289 N05L297 N28L304 14.03 1 G0 SDO, SOHO.. CH + S15L280 S22L268 S28L270 S20L282 16.03 1 G1 SDO, SOHO.. CH + S02L194 S15L189 S18L201 S13L203 21.03 1 SDO, SOHO.. CH + N20L166 S33L158 S25L173 S25L183 94900 22.03 6 G1 SDO, SOHO.. Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 15.03/0000 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH HAS EXPECTED TO PASS 27.03. MARCH 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 MARCH Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 F10.7 070 070 070 071 071 070 071 èbcg <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 2 1.4å+8 4.3å+8 1.1E+8 9.2E+6 1.9E+7 3.4å+7 3.8å+7 GOES Ie>2 5433 8795 5795 1352 360 805 865 pfu Ap 2 4 5 5 3 2 2 nô BOULDER Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 4 5 8 5 4 2 3 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE- GINING AT 02.03/0440 UT AND OBSERVED 02 - 16.03. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 23 - 28.03. ALL DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUITE. NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION EXPECTED ACTIVE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GROWTH UP TO THE LEVEL OF A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM DUE THE PASSAGE BY EARTH OF THE SOLAR WIND HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM RECURRENT TRANS- EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE "+" POLARITY. PROBABILITY OF MAGNETIC STORM NOT LESS 60%. FOR OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE QUIET AND UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov