Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 20 - 26.03.2017, Forecast on 27.03 - 02.04.2017, Carrington Rotation 2188 (6,06.03.2017) Earth above the ecliptic (-7.0, -6,8) deg. (S35-N20 is geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON A VERY LOW LEVEL AND 20.03 WAS SPOT- LESS DAY (27 IN CURRENT YEAR). THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVE- RAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W=06+6/-6 (Wn= 09+10/-9). ON THE VISIBLE DISC OF THE SUN 0-1 SMALL QUITE SUNSPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 20+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW AND LOW (26.03) LEVELS. FOUR SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA > 3 CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 20.03 >0044 >1417 N40W24L200 5 20.03 >1554 >0928 S14E32L144 7 22.03 >1621 >0724 N10E32L118 11 23.03 >1617 >0835 S11W11L147 9 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT A VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH + S02L194 S15L189 S18L201 S13L203 21.03 1 SDO, SOHO.. CH + N20L166 S33L158 S25L173 S25L183 94900 22.03 6 G1 SDO, SOHO.. CH - N20L115 S45L040 S50L050 N05L122 97600 28.03 8 G1 SDO, SOHO.. Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 26.03/2130 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. 24 -25.03 THE SIGN OF SECTORS REPEATEDLY CHANGED. THE FOLLO- WING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS EXPECTED TO PASS 10.04. íáRCH 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 íáRCH Wus 000 011 012 012 012 011 020 F10.7 073 071 073 072 072 074 077 èbcg á1.9 á2.8 á1.8 á1.6 á1.2 <á1.0 A3.0 GOES Sp 000 020 030 020 010 010 050 msh N 1 1 IMF + + + + +/- -/+ +/- DSCOVR Å>2 1.4å+7 2.3å+6 4.6E+7 5.5E+8 4.8E+8 5.0å+8 4.9å+8 GOES Ie>2 459 244 3545 19135 11259 8821 8330 pfu Ap 2 25 28 11 6 6 4 nô BOULDER Dst -28 -35 -42 nô KIOTO Amsc 3 25 31 10 6 3 4 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE- GINING AT 22.03/1530 UT AND OBSERVED 22 - 26.03. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 28.03 - 02.04. MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams = 30, dur. = 39 h.) BY THE DATA OF THE CENTER IN BOULDER HAS BEEN NOTE 21 -23.03. ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF IZMIRAN 21.03 IT WAS NOTED SUBSTORM G1 INTENSITY (9 h.), AND 22.03 A MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=44, dur.=15 h.) IS REGISTERED. THIS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE IS THE CONSEQUENCE OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM THE RECURRENT TRANSEQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE "+" POLARITY. ON THE OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET. NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION EXPECTED ACTIVE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GROWTH UP TO THE LEVEL OF A MAGNETIC STORM 27-29.03 DUE THE PAS- SAGE BY EARTH OF THE SOLAR WIND HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM RECURRENT TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE "-" POLARITY. PROBABILITY OF MAGNETIC STORM NOT LESS 90%. FOR OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE QUIET AND UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov