------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON MARCH 2017 HAS MADE Wmar. = 11 17.7(n.) THAT GIVES FOR 92 MONTHS (2016, SEPTEMBER) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*sep. = 20.0; 33.3 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ W*aug. = 21.6; 36.0 - × ÎÏ×ÏÊ ÓÉÓÔÅÍÅ - On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of cal- culation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - VI 2020; THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2017, MARCH ACCORDING DATA OF 74 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 59 6.. 0m 11.. 0m 16.. 0m 21.. 13 26.. 33 31.. 66M 2.. 57 7.. 0m 12.. 0m 17.. 0m 22.. 14 27.. 51 3.. 37 8.. 0m 13.. 0m 18.. 0m 23.. 14 28.. 57 4.. 0m 9.. 0m 14.. 0m 19.. 0m 24.. 14 29.. 52 5.. 14 10.. 0m 15.. 0m 20.. 0m 25.. 18 30.. 49 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON 2016, MARCHY, AND SMOOTHES ON 2016, SEPTEMBER F10.7 mar. = 76.6 F*10.7 sep.= THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2016, MARCH, AND SMOOTHES ON 2016, SEPTEMBER Ap mar. = 14.8 Ap*sep. = ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 20 - 26.03.2017, Forecast on 27.03 - 02.04.2017, Carrington Rotation 2188 (6,06.03.2017) Earth above the ecliptic (-7.0, -6,8) deg. (S35-N20 is geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON A MIDDLE LEVEL. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN- TERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W=39+8/-19 (Wn=56+20/-24). ON THE VISIBLE DISC OF THE SUN 2 -4 SUNSPOT GROUP, ONE WAS THE MIDDLE SIZE AND FLARE ACTIVING (AR12644 (N12L054, Sp max= 450 msh, í>5/2, í> 1/3), SECOND - THE BIG SIZE AND QUITE AR12645 (S08L012, Sp max = 600 msh) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 40+40/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LARGE LEVEL 02.04, MIDDLE - 01.04 AND LOW - 27-28 AND 31.03. ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA > 10 CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 01.04 2135 2148 2240 N16W53L054 M4.4/1F E4.6-2 12644 IV/3 CME/2212 02.04 0750 0802 0946 N12W60L054 2N/M5.3 E5.3-2 12644 II/1 CME/ 02.04 1252 1300 >1311 N16W68L054 M2.1/ E1.6-2 12644 02.04 1818 1838 >1928 N16W71L054 M2.3/SF E6.1-2 12644 02.04 2026 2033 >2038 N12W74L054 M5.7/ E2.2-2 12644 CME? DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 27.03 >0629 >0906 N04W57L140 10 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT A MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH - N20L115 S45L040 S50L050 N05L122 97600 28.03 8 G1 SDO, SOHO.. CH + N13L041 N05L021 S15L032 N03L046 03.04 >6 G1 SDO, SOHO.. Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FROM 26.03/2130 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD.THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS EXPECTED TO PASS 10.04. MARCH 27 28 29 30 31 01 02 APRIL Wus 049 051 053 033 065 079 075 F10.7 083 084 083 086 091 101 112 èbcg ÷1.0 ÷1.3 ÷1.1 ÷1.3 ÷1.1 ÷2.0 B7.9 GOES Sp 200 320 400 450 580 740 1070 msh N 2 1 1 IMF - - - - - - - DSCOVR Å>2 1.5å+7 3.0å+8 8.2E+8 7.0E+8 7.3E+8 1.5å+9 2.3å+9 GOES Ie>2 7934 14903 29502 24432 24539 41365 62136 pfu Ap 51 25 22 21 32 16 8 nô BOULDER Dst -28 -35 -42 nô KIOTO Amsc 34 20 41 18 24 17 10 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE- GINING AT 22.03/1530 UT AND OBSERVED 22.03 - 02.04. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 03 - 10.04. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION ALL WEEK WAS ACTIVE. THE MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams=49, dur. = 33 h). ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER 27-28.03 ARE NOTED. BY IZMIRAN DATA IT WAS THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams = 25, dur. = 27 h). THE FOLLOWING MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams = 35, dur. = 18 h) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER 29.03, BUT BY IZMIRAN DATA THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS OBSERVED SINCE THE BE- GINNING OF DAYS WAS JUST ACTIVE. FOLLOWING MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams=27, dur.=33 h.) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA AND (G1, Ams=38, dur. =24 h). ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER 30 - 31.04 WERE OBSERVED. THIS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE IS THE CONSEQUENCE OF EARTH'S PASSING OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM THE RECURRENT TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE "+" POLARITY AND ARRIVAL OF DISTURBANCE FROM EJECTA OF SOLAR FILAMENT AT 22.03. NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE QUIET AND UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov