------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON APRIL 2017 HAS MADE Wapr. = 20.8 32.6(n) THAT GIVES FOR 93 MONTHS (2016, ORTOBER) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*ÏÓt. = 20.1; 31.4 - on new system W*sep. = 19.9; 33.3 - on new system Å On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of cal- culation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - VI 2020; THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2017, APRIL ACCORDING DATA OF 78 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 71 6.. 36 11.. 14 16.. 0 21m. 40 26.. 39 2.. 84 7.. 24 12.. 23 17.. 0 22m. 31 27.. 27 3..100M 8.. 0m 13.. 25 18.. 24 23.. 43 28.. 36 4.. 75 9.. 12 14.. 21 19.. 16 24.. 46 29.. 34 5.. 50 10.. 14 15.. 0m 20.. 28 25.. 42 30.. 24 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON 2017, APRIL, AND SMOOTHES ON 2016, OóTOBER F10.7 apr. = 80.4 F*10.7 oct.= 82.5 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2017, APRIL, AND SMOOTHES ON 2016, OóTOBER Ap apr. = 11.5 Ap*oÓt. = 11.6 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 01 - 05.05.2017, Forecast on 08 - 15.05.2017, Carrington Rotation 2190 (29,63.04.2017) Earth above the ecliptic (-4.0, -3,3) deg. (S34 - N26 is geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON MIDDLE LEVEL ALL DAYS BESIDE 1 AND 3.05 (LOW). THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W=23+6/-16 (Wn=22+8/-11). ON THE VISIBLE DISC OF THE SUN 1- 2 SMALL QUITE SUNSPOT GROUP. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW LEVEL AND TO END OF PERIOD - THE VERY LOW. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=20+10/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL ALL DAYS. 5 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA >6 CMEs. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 01.05 >1609 >0502 S40W09L345 8 02.05 >0115 >1242 S03E31L291 4 03.03 >0114 >1251 S47E18L292 9 03.03 0721 0904 S44W16L326 8 03.03 0824 1154 S35W43L353 6 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH + N45L239 N38L224 N28L236 N40L246 1 SDO, SOHO... CH - N02L252 S06L232 N25L249 S05L254 1 SDO, SOHO... The last CH was appeared 8.05 only; Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ AFTER 4.05/0224 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS EXPECTED TO PASS 15.05. MAY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 MAY Wus 011 025 015 029 031 026 023 F10.7 075 077 075 074 074 073 076 èbcg A6.2 á7.2 á6.1 á5.8 á6.2 á4.4 á3.6 GOES Sp 020 070 070 090 070 050 030 msh N 1 IMF + + ~ +/- - - - DSCOVR Å>2 2.3å+7 3.3å+8 4.2E+8 2.3E+8 1.3å+7 1.7å+7 2.4å+7 GOES Ie>2 6809 8388 7831 5333 3840 613 1535 pfu Ap 4 4 5 7 5 4 9 nô BOULDER Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 4 5 4 6 4 4 8 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE- GINING AT 21.04/1425 UT AND OBSERVED AT 21 - 5.05. NEXT INCREASE OF ELECTRON FLUX WAS BEGINING AT 07.05/1615 UT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 8 - 13.05. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUITE. NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE QUIET AND UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov