------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON MAY 2017 HAS MADE Wapr. = 11.3 18.8(n) THAT GIVES FOR 93 MONTHS (2016, NOVEMBER) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*nov. = 17.4; 29.9 - on new system W*oct. = 18.8; 31.4 - on new system Å On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of cal- culation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - VI 2020; THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2017, MAY ACCORDING DATA OF 8O SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 12 6.. 27 11.. 11 16.. 25 21.. 36 26.. 25 31.. 0m 2.. 28 7.. 23 12.. 14 17.. 12 22.. 50 27.. 24 3.. 18 8.. 11 13.. 0m 18.. 24 23.. 55M 28.. 21 4.. 17 9.. 0m 14.. 0m 19.. 24 24.. 20 29.. 14 5.. 31 10.. 0m 15.. 0m 20.. 30 25.. 31 30.. 0m THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON 2017, MAY, AND SMOOTHES ON 2016, NOVEMBER F10.7 may. = 73.6 F*10.7 nov.= 82.5 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2017, MAY, AND SMOOTHES ON 2016, NOVEMBER Ap may. = 8.7 Ap*nov. = 11.6 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 27.05 - 04.06.2017, Forecast on 05 - 12.06.2017, Carrington Rotation 2191 (26,85.05.2017) Earth above the ecliptic (-1,7; -1,3) deg. (S35 - N25 is geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON THE LOW LEVEL? BUT 30.05 WAS SPOT- LESS DAY (38 IN CURRENT YEAR). THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD (9 DAYS) IS W= 10+4/-10 (Wn= 16+6/-16). ON THE VISIBLE DISC OF THE SUN 1 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN OB- SERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND VE- RY LOW LEVELS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 20+10/-15. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL AT 28.05, 1-4.06 AND THE VERY LOW - IN OTHER DAYS DAYS. 1 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA >15 CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 01.06 >0914 >2332 S42E10L270 4 --------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEAT THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. óî + N12L320 N08L318 S10L325 S02L335 02.06 1 SDO, SOHO... Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ AFTER 3.06/09 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. BETWEEN 30.05 AND 03.06 THE SIGN OF SECTOR CHANGED. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH SHOULD BE PASSED 0N 6.05. MAY 27 28 29 30 31 01 02 03 04 JUNE Wus 021 020 016 000 011 018 019 022 023 F10.7 082 079 076 074 074 076 078 078 078 èbcg ÷1.3 ÷1.1 ÷1.0 á8.7 B1.2 ÷2.7 ÷1.9 á8.8 á7.3 GOES Sp 180 220 180 000 030 060 200 180 130 msh N 1 IMF - - - -/+ + +/- - -/+ + DSCOVR Å>2 4.9å+8 3.1E+6 1.6E+7 1.1å+7 2.8å+7 3.8å+7 2.0å+7 2.4å+7 1.1å+7 GOES Ie>2 13235 641 490 315 624 802 492 394 224 pfu Ap 14 49 10 7 4 7 4 9 2 nô Dst -39 -122 -38 -26 -15 nô Amsc 12 25 11 6 3 6 5 15 3 nô ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGIN 20.05/1705 UT IN RESPONSE TO ELEVATED WIND SPEED FROM CH HSS INFLU- ENCE AND OBSERVED 22 - 27.05. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION BY THE DATA OF THE CENTER IN BOULDR HAS COME TO THE LEVEL OF THE MAJOR MAGNETIC STORM (G3, Ams= 76, dur. =18 h.) FOR THE LAST THREE HOURS 27.05. ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA, IT WAS A MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams= 42, dur. = 15 h). THIS WAS THE REACTION OF THE MAGNITOSPHERE ON THE ARRIVAL THE DISTURBANCE (ICME) FROM THE SOLAR FILAMENTS EJECTION 23.05. ON THE OTER DAYS THE GEO- MAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED. ON THE NEXT WEEK THE QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION TO BE EXPECTED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov