Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 10 - 16.07.2017, Forecast on 17 - 24.07.2017, Carrington Rotation 2192, 2193 (23,05.06; 20.07.2017) Earth above the ecliptic (1,6; 2,1) deg. (S35 - N35 is geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL ALL DAYS EXCEPT 11.07 - ON THE LOW. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VA- LUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W=024+11/-8 (Wn=038+15/-13). ON THE VISIB- LE SOLAR DISK 3 SUNSPOT GROUP, ONE OF THEM WAS BIG (AR12665 S05L109, Sp = 710 msh, M2) WAS OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE MIDDLE, THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 20+20/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL AT 14.07, AT THE LOW 10, 11 13, 15, 16.07 AND THE VERY LOW 12.07. 4 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS >14 CMEs ONE WAS TYPE II (angular with 90 - 180 deg.). ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 14.02 0107 0209 0455 S06W29L109 M2.4/1N 1.3E-01 12665 CME/0248 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 11.07 >1554 >0435 N34E53L075 6 12.07 >0900 >0011 S26W34L147 8 CME 12.07 0200 N23W33L146 ? 16.07 >0920 >0018 N19W23L083 14 --------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THE MIDDLE, LOW AND THE VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH - S18L105 S28L085 S40L095 S20L110 16.07 1 SDO, SOHO... CH + N50L027 N30L002 N22L042 N28L060 18.07 3 SDO, SOHO... Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 15.07/1820 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ EARTH SHOULD BE PASSED 0N 20.07. JULY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 JULY Wus 032 027 043 055 058 034 026 F10.7 095 091 090 092 094 092 087 èbcg B1.3 B1.3 B1.6 B1.4 B5.6 B1.9 ÷2.1 GOES Sp 690 620 590 470 490 390 350 msh N 1 1 IMF + + + + ~ +/- - DSCOVR Å>2 5.7å+6 - 2.7E+7 3.3å+7 4.4å+7 2.9å+7 3.6å+6 GOES Ie>2 179 477 658 666 942 723 376 pfu Ap 9 8 3 4 5 3 45 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 9 8 5 8 6 4 41 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 19 - 24.07. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED ALL DAYS TO 16.07 WHEN AFTER ARRIVAL OF THE INTERPLANETARY SHOCK (SI 16/0601 UT) FROM FLARE M2.4 WAS OBSERVED MIDDLE MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams=47, dur.=18 h.) AC- CORDING IZMIRAN DATA AND (G2, be continued) ACCORDING OF THE CENTER BOULDER DATA. ON THE NEXT WEEK THE QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION BE EX- PECTED, HOWEVER 18-19.07 HAS POSSIBLE ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION - CORONAL HOLE INFLUENCE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov