Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 17 - 23.07.2017, Forecast on 24 - 31.07.2017, Carrington Rotation 2192, 2193 (23,05.06; 20.07.2017) Earth above the ecliptic (2,2; 2,8) deg. (S35 - N35 is geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL ALL DAYS AND 18-23.07 WERE SPOTLESS DAYS - 50 DAYS IN CURRENT YEAR (24%). THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W =001+7/-1 (Wn =002+10/-2). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 1 BIG SUNSPOT GROUP WHICH 18.07 SETED TO WEST LIMB. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND VE- RY LOW LEVELS. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 10+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL AT 17 - 18.07 AND THE VERY LOW IN OTHER DAYS. TWO SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS >12 CMEs ONE WAS THE TYPE "HALO", ONE THE TYPE III (angular with 180 - 270 deg.), AND TWO THE TYPE - II (angular with 90 - 180 deg.). ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 14.02 0107 0209 0455 S06W29L109 M2.4/1N 1.3E-01 12665 CME/0248 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 17.07 >0924 >2357 N16E47L000 9 19.07 >1719 >0506 S34W06L026 8 --------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THE LOW AND THE VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH - S18L105 S28L085 S40L095 S20L110 16.07 1 SDO, SOHO... CH + N50L027 N30L002 N22L042 N28L060 60400 18.07 3 SDO, SOHO... Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 20.07/0630 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH SHOULD BE PASSED 0N 11.08. éàìø 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 éàìø Wus 013 000 000 000 000 000 000 F10.7 086 078 073 070 069 070 071 èbcg B2.0 B2.4 B1.5 á8.8 á4.8 á4.2 á5.0 GOES Sp 450 000 000 000 000 000 000 msh N IMF - - - -/+ + + + DSCOVR Å>2 2.8å+8 2.8å+8 6.6E+8 6.4å+8 2.6å+7 2.7å+7 1.4å+8 GOES Ie>2 12226 5531 13630 11444 1273 3619 5476 pfu Ap 27 7 4 7 14 16 15 nô Dst -57 -35 -25 nô KIOTO Amsc 17 5 4 6 14 15 17 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE- GINING 17/07/0325 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 17 - 23.07. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AFTER 17.07 WAS CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO ACTI- VE 22.07 WHEN BOTH OBSERVATORIES REGISTRED SUBSTORM (G1-G0, dur. 6 h.). AFTER ARRIVAL OF THE INTERPLANETARY SHOCK (SI 16/0601 UT) FROM FLARE M2.4 WAS OBSERVED MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams=47, dur.=18 h.) AC- CORDING IZMIRAN DATA AND (G2, Ams= 45, dur.= 36 h.) ACCORDING OF THE CENTER BOULDER DATA. ON THE NEXT WEEK THE QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION BE EX- PECTED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov