Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                Highlights on 24 - 30.07.2017,
                Forecast on 31.07 - 6.08.2017,
            Carrington Rotation 2193 (20.07.2017)
           Earth above the ecliptic (2,8; 3,2) deg. 
              (S32 - N35 is geoeffectiveness zone)

 SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY  WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL ALL DAYS AND
24, 26 - 28.07 WERE SPOTLESS DAYS - 54 DAYS IN CURRENT YEAR (25%).  
THE ESTIMATED,  MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE  OF THE RELATIVE  
SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old)  FOR THE PERIOD 
IS W = 003+3/-3 (Wn= 005+7/-5). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 2 SMALL
AND QUITE SUNSPOT GROUP.   

NEXT WEEK FROM 1.08 ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THERE IS THE SUNSPOT 
GROUP OF AVERAGE SIZE (THE SECOND ROTATION) WHICH ON LAST ROTATION 
AND  ON INVISIBLE SIDE OF THE SUN  HAS GIVEN  TWO PROTON FLARES 14 
(22 PFU) AND 23.07 (2 PFU). THEREFORE THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT-FORMING 
ACTIVITY  WILL CHANGE FROM VERY LOW TO THE AVERAGE.  THE ESTIMATED, 
MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN 
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 10+20/-10.

 FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJEC-
TIONS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ACCORDING  TO THE DATA FROM 
SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS > 9 CMEs ONE WAS THE TYPE II (angular 
width 90 - 180 deg.).
----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to   tm    te   local.     Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV   CME
                                 X-ray/Ïp  J/m-2
                                 
DSF     to     te    ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ  l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl     Aï        CME/to
26.07 >1259   >0636   N07W29L307       8  
---------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY CAN CHANGE FROM VERY LOW TO HIGH LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE   R  G  Space Obser.
CH  -  N05L248 S05L243  S15L263 S02L270       31.07  2  G1 SDO, SOHO...
CH  +  N38L190 N35L180  N05L210 N10L217       03.08  2  G1 SDO, SOHO...
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

 20.07/0630 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD. 24 - 25.07 THE SIGN OF THE SECTOR REPEATEDLY CHANGED. NEXT 
SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH SHOULD BE PASSED 0N 11.08.

JULY    24     25     26     27     28     29     30      JULY
Wus    000    012    000    000    000    012    011 
F10.7  070    070    069    068    070    070    070
èbcg  á4.8   á4.5   á3.8   á3.9   á3.7   á4.0   á4.6      GOES
Sp     000    010    000    000    000    005    010  msh   
N              1                           1
IMF     +     +/-    -/+     +      +      +      +      DSCOVR   
Å>2 4.1å+8 5.4å+8 4.7E+8 7.1å+8 4.4å+8 3.3å+8 3.5å+8      GOES
Ie>2 14764  18832  13961   6548  14317   8288   7053   pfu 
Ap      13     9      10     6      9      4      3    nô  
Dst                                                    nô KIOTO
Amsc    11     11     10     5      5      4      4    nô IZMIRAN 
------------------------------------------------------------------
Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE-
GINING 17/07/0325 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 17 - 30.07.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY 
HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 31.07 - 02.08.

TWO SOLAR PROTON EVENTS WERE OCCURED DURING PASSING OF BIG SUNSPOT 
GROUP IN JULY, AS A RESULT OF SOLAR FLARES 14.07:
Pr (>10 MeV)- to 14/0900 UT; max 14/2320 UT - 22 pfu; te-16/12 UT;
AND DACK SIDE FLARE 23.07:
Pr (>10 MeV)- max 25/1930 UT - 2 pfu; te-26/22 UT;

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUITE.

NEXT WEEK 31.07-1.08 AND 3- .08 EARTH WILL PASS HIGH-SPEED STREAMS OF 
THE SOLAR WIND FROM CORONAL HOLES (table) "-" AND "+" POLARITIES THAT 
CAN  CAUSE GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE GROWTH.  PROBABILITIES OF MAGNETIC 
STORMS - 10  AND 30%. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE 
UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov