Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                Highlights on 14 - 20.08.2017,
                 Forecast on 21 - 28.08.2017,
    Carrington Rotation 2193, 2194 (20.07; 16,48.08.2017)
           Earth above the ecliptic (3,3; 4,0) deg. 
              (S30 - N38 is geoeffectiveness zone)

 SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM THE VERY LOW TO MIDDLE LEVELS. 
THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD W=018+8
/-11 (Wn=029+13/-18). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 2 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP. 

 NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN AT A MID-
DLE LEVEL. THERE IS A PROBABILITY THAT SPOTLESS DAYS WILL BE OBSERVED
UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD. MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE 
RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT 
WEEK IS W= 030+20/-10.  

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT A VERY LOW ALL DAYS. ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJEC-
TIONS  OCCURRENCES  THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM 
SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS NO CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to   tm    te   local.     Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV   CME
                                 X-ray/Ïp  J/m-2
20.08  0136 0152  0203 N06E89L    M1.1/    1.1E-02 12672                                 
DSF     to      te    ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ    l × ÇÒÁÄ.  Fl    Aï    CME/to
19.08 >0922   >0105   N29E17L          6            0001
---------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY WILL CHANGE BITWEEN A MIDDLE END A VERY 
LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE   R  G  Space Obser.
CH  +  N50L008 N30L318  N17L023 N22L040       16.08  4     SDO, SOHO...
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

 16.08/02 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH SHOULD BE PASSED 0N 28.08.

AUGUST  07     08     09     10     11     12     13      AUGUST
Wus    011    011    011    011    011    011    011 
F10.7  073    071    072    071    070    070    068
èbcg  á5.2   á3.9   á3.5   á3.3   á3.0   á2.7   á2.9      GOES
Sp     140    120    130    110    110    110    110  msh   
N                                          
IMF     +      +      +      +     +/-     -      -      DSCOVR   
Å>2 4.4å+8 5.3å+8 3.9E+8 3.2å+8 1.4å+8 2.6å+7 3.8å+7      GOES
Ie>2  4301  10425   7825   6774   4952    920    978   pfu 
Ap      5      4      4      5      7      11     7    nô  
Dst                                                    nô KIOTO
Amsc    4      4      5      6      7      10     8    nô IZMIRAN 
------------------------------------------------------------------
Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

 THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAS BE-
GIN 5.08/1405 UT UT AND 05 - 12.08 WAS OBSERVED. THE SECOND INCREASE 
HAS BEGUN 15.08/1245 UT AND 15-16.08 WERE OBSERVED. THE FOLLOWING IN-
CREASE HAS BEGUN 18.08/1650 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 18 - 20.08,  THE REA-
SONS OF THE LAST ARE VERY MYSTERIOUS.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY 
HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 18 - 23?.08.

MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=34, dur. = 21 h.). HAS REGISTERED BOUL-
DER CENTER DATA 17-18.08 WHEREAS ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA THE SUBSTORM 
OF G1-INTENSITY AND 9 h. DURATION IS NOTED AT THIS TIME. SECOND MINOR  
MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=34, dur.=42 h.) OCCURENCES 18-20.08 ACCORDING 
TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER  AND (G1, Ams= 27, dur.= 39 h.) ACCORDING TO 
THE IZMIRAN DATA. THE 1st GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE  WAS CONNECTED WITH 
EARTH's PASSING OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM THE CORONAL HOLE OF NOR-
THERN SUBPOLAR CORONAL HOLE, ON WHICH THEN DISTURBANCE FROM SOLAR FI-
LAMENT EJECTION 16.08 WITH CORONAL MASS EJECTON WAS IMPOSED. IN OTHER
DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov