------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 16 - 22.10.2017, Forecast on 23 - 30.10.2017, Carrington Rotation 2196 (10.01.10.2017) Earth above the ecliptic (6.2 - 5,5) deg. (S25 - N35 is geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL (UNTIL 21.10; 68 SPOTLESS DAYS IN CURRENT YEAR). THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WE- EKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD W = 002+6/-2 (Wn = 003+09/-3). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 1 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP (NEXT ROTANION AR12682) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK LEVEL OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN AT THE LOW LEVEL AND WILL BE DEFINED BY TWO ACTIVE REGIONS APPEARANCE TO THE VISIBLE DISK. MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATI- VE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 010+10/-10. THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL 20.10 WHEN IN THE SUN- SPOT GROUP ON THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OCCURRENCES A FLARE OF THE MIDDLE X-RAY CLASS. 18.10/<0534 UT ON SOLAR BACK SIDE IN NOTHERN ACTIVE REGION (AR12683 ON PREVIOUS ROTATION) WAS OCCURENCE LARGE 2-ribbons FLARE, PRESUMABLE IMPORTANCE 3B. ON EAST LIMB IT COULD CORRESPOND LONG (>3.5 h.) X-ray BIRST (B2.4). THE FLARE EVENT WAS FOLLOWED BY THE THE DYNAMIC PHENOMENA IN OPTICAL (CME) AND IN RA- DIO BIRSTS II AND IV TYPES. IN OTHER DAYS THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT VERY LOW LEVEL. THERE WAS ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS OCCUR- RENCES ON THIS PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS >14 CME, ONE -TYPE II (angular with 90-180 deg.) HA- VE BEEN OBSERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 18.10 0818 1031 >1145 S07E90L127 B2.4/~3B 12685 II/2-0539 CME/0548 IV/1 - 0537-0600 20.10 2310 2328 >2337 S12E88L127 M1.1/ 8.8E-3 12685 II/1 CME/0000 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 17.10 >1501 >0809 N06W64L318 6 --------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY WILL CHANGE FROM VERY LOW TO THE MIDDLE AND IN CASE OF THE SIGNIFICANT NEW MAGNETIC FLUX EMERGENCE IN ACTIVE REGIONS - HIGH LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH + N55L281 N25L276 N20L281 N30L289 18.10 1 SDO, SOHO... CH - N05L218 S20L233 S31L243 S15L253 21.10 5 G0 SDO, SOHO... CH + N43L187 N30L182 N15L194 N10L217 23.10 5 G1 SDO, SOHO... Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 10.10/08 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. 21 AND 22.10 SIGN OF THE SECTOR REPEATEDLY CHANGED. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH SHOULD BE PASSED 0N 30.10. OCTOBER 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 OCTOBER Wus 000 000 000 000 000 011 013 F10.7 071 070 073 073 076 077 077 èbcg á3.4 á4.1 A5.7 A5.3 A6.6 A7.8 A7.4 GOES Sp 000 000 000 000 000 050 070 msh N 1 IMF + + + + + ~ ~ DSCOVR Å>2 1.2+9 2.6å+9 2.9E+9 2.1å+8 2.5å+7 8.6å+7 9.1å+6 GOES Ie>2 36944 56839 55588 38618 851 3951 215 pfu Ap 9 5 4 12 9 10 6 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 8 7 5 17 8 10 6 nô IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAS BE- GIN 12.10/1350 UT AND 12-19.10 AND 21 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS EXPECTED 25 - 30.10. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED ALL DAYS, EXCEPT 19.10 (ACTIVE) WHEN BY DATA OF IZMIRAN HAS BEEN NOTED THE SUBSTORM (G1) BY DURATION <6 h - THE TRACE OF EARTH's PASSING OF THE HIGH- SPEED STREAM FROM CORONAL HOLE "-" POLARITY. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE UNSETTLED AND QUIET ALL DAYS, EXCEPT 24 - 26.10, WHEN THE EARTH PASSES THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM CORONAL HOLES "+" POLARITY ON NORTHEN HEMISPHERE. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM (G1) ~ 60%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov