Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 23 - 29.10.2017, Forecast on 30.10 - 03.11.2017, Carrington Rotation 2196 (10.01.10.2017) Earth above the ecliptic ((5.5 - 4,9) deg. (S25 - N35 is geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON THE LOW LEVEL. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD W=014+1/-1 (Wn =022+01/-1). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK TWO SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP. NEXT WEEK LEVEL OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN AT THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 020+10/-20. THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. THERE WAS THREE SO- LAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS OCCURRENCES ON THIS PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS NO CME HAVE BEEN OB- SERVED. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME/to 24.10 >0007 >1701 N24E39L136* 17 24.10 >0953 >2230 >N32E24L151* 6 26.10 >0859 >2232 S30W13L149 12 * - may be one filament --------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. CH + N43L187 N30L182 N15L194 N10L217 29100 23.10 5 G1 SDO, SOHO... CH - S02L101 S12L076 S45L076 S10L106 28900 01.11 5 G0 SDO, SOHO... Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 10.10/08 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELD. 23-26.10 SIGN OF THE SECTOR REPEATEDLY CHANGED. NEXT SEC- TOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH SHOULD BE PASSED 0N 30.10. OCTOBER 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 OCTOBER Wus 023 023 024 023 023 022 023 F10.7 078 078 079 077 076 075 075 èbcg á7.3 á7.1 A7.7 A7.5 A6.6 A6.0 A5.8 GOES Sp 090 090 070 050 060 020 020 msh N IMF ~/+ ~/+ ~/+ + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 1.8+7 2.8å+7 3.5E+7 7.2å+7 7.5å+7 1.1å+8 1.5å+8 GOES Ie>2 518 2102 1178 2154 1897 2202 3103 pfu Ap 6 19 23 20 5 5 3 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 6 25 16 22 5 6 3 nô IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAS BE- GIN 24.10/1245 UT AND 24-29.10 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS EXPECTED 30.10 - 03.11. TWO MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=33, dur.=21 h.) AND (G0, Ams=24, dur.= 21 h.) REGISTERED ON 24 -26.10 ACCORDING TO THE CENTER DATA IN BOULDER, BUT ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF IZMIRAN IT WAS THE MODERA- TE MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams = 43, dur. = 21 h.) AND THREE SUBSTORS, LATER, IN THE SECOND HALF OF 26.10 WAS SUFFICIENTLY INTENSIVE (G1) AND DURATION (<9 h.). THESE DISTURBANCES ARE CAUSED BY THE EART's PASSAGE OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM THE CH OF "+" POLARITY. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE UNSETTLED AND QUIET ALL DAYS. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov